Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 25 Apr 2022, 13:32

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 25 – Stock futures came under pressure overnight as fears of broadening China Covid-related lockdowns spread through the global markets. The VIX surged above 30 for the first time since March 15^th overnight, reflecting elevated fears levels on Wall Street. The dollar index pushed notably higher to a fresh two-year high above 101.7 early this morning as a safe-haven trade, while yields on 10-year Treasuries pulled back to trade near 2.81%. Crude oil prices are down nearly 6% this morning on the China lockdown story. The Ags are mixed this morning, with wheat prices pushing higher, while soybeans try to lead corn lower.

Dozens of residential compounds were locked down today in portions of Beijing as Covid continues to spread in China. Beijing, a city of more than 20 million people, may soon be facing the same widespread lockdowns as those continuing in Shanghai. Grocery store shelves emptied as Beijing residents hoarded supplies ahead of feared lockdowns, after seeing reports of food shortages in Shanghai in recent weeks. Beijing residents fear they may be forced to face similar shortages in the weeks ahead. Global stocks tumbled overnight amid fears that the lockdowns would continue to spread in some of China’s most populous cities, pulling that nation into a deeper recession, and the rest of the world with it. Roughly 344 million people, or a quarter of China’s population, are under some type of lockdown currently, according to investment bank Nomura. Shanghai, home to nearly 26 million people, is described as a ghost town. Fears are now rising that Beijing may soon suffer a similar fate.

The impact on China’s economy has been significant. Nationally, the data suggests that consumption fell 3.5% in March, with restaurant spending down 16%. April numbers are expected to be much worse as the lockdowns continue to spread through some of China’s largest cities. Reports of food shortages are common amid a lack of delivery workers, with people confined to their homes in many cases. There appears to be few things that China will not do to enforce its zero-tolerance policy regarding Covid. Commercial trucks must have passes to deliver food and household goods to the locked down cities. There’s a shortage of truck drivers willing to do the job. There are also reports of operators willing to pay $2,000 for a day pass, which is then priced into the groceries that they sell to residents of the locked down areas. Some neighborhoods only allow government-sponsored grocery distributions, while others do not allow residents to purchase diapers, baby formula or toilet paper, because those items are not seen as necessities. China is normally the world’s largest consumer of energy, but consumption is well below normal with people not driving or flying and many factories shut down. That’s why crude oil prices are tumbling this morning as fears of a Beijing shutdown spread across Wall Street. On a positive note, Changchun, capital city of Jilin province in northeastern China, is expected to slowly start reopening after recent lockdowns.

Most of Ukraine was placed under a long air raid warning for two hours this morning, as Russian airstrikes bombed five railway stations in central and western portions of the country, even as intense fighting continues in eastern and southern areas. An undetermined number of casualties occurred as the railroad stations were hit by airstrikes this morning. The rail stations have been central for refugees fleeing from the fighting, as well as for grain moving west for overland exports. Shelling and assaults by Russian forces continued along most of the front in the east of Ukraine, including missile and bomb attacks on a massive steelworks facility in Mariupol where an estimated 1,000 civilians are holed up along with roughly 2,000 Ukrainian fighters. Agronomically, Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports that 86% of the “expected” spring wheat acreage has been planted, along with 60% of the barely and 6% of the corn.

Palm oil prices surged initially overnight in follow-through buying from Friday when government officials shocked the world with a ban on exports. However, the edible oils markets saw a sharp sell-off after reports emerged that officials had told two exporters that some shipments of crude palm oil and RBD palm oil will still be allowed. Losses then spread through the oilseed complex as reports of possible Beijing shutdowns increased fears of reduced global demand for energy, cooking oils, meats, and those commodities used to produce those essentials. The above contributed to the broad sell-off in the commodity sector overnight. However, the hard red wheat classes held modest gains into this morning. USDA is expected to confirm additional deterioration of the Plains hard red winter wheat belt this afternoon, while planting delays are feared to decrease spring wheat acreage. China was another big buyer of U.S. soybeans overnight, purchasing 12.1 million bushels, although 9.7 million of that total sale will be new-crop supplies. Meanwhile, U.S. soybeans are cheaper than Brazilian for summer loadings.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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