Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 30 Apr 2026, 13:34

April 30 – Stock futures pushed higher overnight as crude oil prices dropped notably lower, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s swan song appearance before the press on Wednesday afternoon, even as investors monitor news out of the Middle East to see if the ceasefire will now be broken in a notable way while expecting the blockade and Strait closure to remain intact. A plethora of economic data was released this morning, painting a picture of a rather resilient economy, although one that faces lingering inflation pressure due to the Strait closure. The VIX is trading below 18 this morning as stock futures rally, while the dollar index trades near 98.5 amid reports that Japan has intervened in the currency market to strengthen the yen. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.39%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.89%. WTI crude oil is trading near $104, while Brent is trading near $114 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly lower as well, with money flowing out of the food and energy commodities in early trade today.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits for unemployment benefits dropped to a multi-year low of 189K in the week ending April 25, down from 212K the previous week. The four-week moving average dropped to 207.5K claims, down from 211K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending April 18 dropped 23K to 1.785 million. The four-week moving average for continuing claims fell by 11,750 to 1.797 million. One week does not make a trend, but these are very good numbers. We’ll need to monitor future weeks to see if this is an aberration or the start of a stronger jobs market. Other data released today showed that the employment cost index rose 0.9% in the first quarter of this year, up from 0.7% gains in the fourth quarter of last year. The employment cost index was up 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, matching the pace that was also seen in the previous quarter.

Personal income rose 0.6% on the month in March, doubling the anticipated pace, and up from being flat in February. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.9% on the month in March, matching expectations, but up from 0.6% in February. The headline PCE price index rose 0.7% on the month in March as energy prices began to surge after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, matching expectations, but up from 0.4% gains in February. The headline PCE price index rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, again matching expectations, but up from 2.8% in February. The core PCE price index that excludes food and energy rose by just 0.3% in March, matching expectations and down from 0.4% the previous month. The core PCE price index rose 3.2% year-on-year in March, again matching expectations, but up from 3.0% in February, and the highest since November 2023.

First quarter gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 2.0%, up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of last year, but slightly below analyst expectations of 2.1% growth. Personal consumption expenditures rose at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter, which was a bit above analyst expectations of 1.5% growth, but down from 1.9% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is the first reading of first quarter data, with two more revisions expected over the next couple of months as more data comes in.

The Federal Open Market Committee made no notable changes to monetary policy in Jerome Powell’s final meeting at which he served as chair of the meeting, but there were still some very notable developments yesterday afternoon. First, Powell announced that he would stay on the FOMC as a governor until such time that he felt that all of the Trump Administration’s investigations into the policy body are actually complete, preventing incoming chair Kevin Warsh from having a majority. Second, the vote for yesterday’s policy statement passed on an 8-4 vote, which was the highest number of dissents for a policy statement since 1992. One of the dissents was from Stephen Miran who again protested the fact that the Fed didn’t cut its benchmark interest rate again. But the other three dissents were from Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lori Logan because they opposed keeping language in the statement that communicates a future rate cutting bias. What we do not know is their reasons for dissenting. Is it because they want to send a message to Warsh before he takes his seat at the helm that they plan to oppose any cuts he might propose, believing that Warsh is being pressured by Trump? Or was it because they genuinely believe that rising inflation pressures are tilting the balance toward rate hikes. Regardless, the market read it as the latter, with Fed fund futures trading higher odds that we’ll see a rate hike over the next year than they are a rate cut.

Negative money flow for the food and energy commodities weighed on prices overnight. Today could prove to be a pivotal day for these commodities as there are reports that the United States may resume some limited strikes on Iran, while Iran threatens to respond with “long and painful strikes” of its own if we do. Regardless, the growing deficit of energy and fertilizer is expected to get worse before it gets better, regardless of what happens today.

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