Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 06 Apr 2023, 13:30

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 6 – Jobs continue to be the focus on Wall Street as we head into a three-day holiday Easter weekend, with this morning’s data focused on layoff and weekly jobless claims data. The markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter Good Friday holiday break. The VIX continues to trade just below 20, reflecting relative calm on Wall Street, even as traders talk of the coming anticipated recession. The dollar index is trading firmer near 102.1 this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.30%, after dropping to a fresh seven-month low near 3.25% earlier this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.79%. Crude oil prices are modestly lower in early trade, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed to weaker heading into the weekend.

First-time jobless claims rose notably to 228K in the week ending April 1, which is well above analyst expectations of 201K. Furthermore, the previous week’s total was raised to 246K claims, up from the 198K originally reported. This pushed the four-week moving average to 237.75K claims. However, the Department of Labor noted in this report that it changed the methodology used to seasonally adjust the data, which impacted this week’s report. The adjustments were made in an attempt to account for some of the abnormalities of the pandemic data. As such, we’ll need to adjust to the new adjustment factors to get a feel for current actual trends. Seasonally adjusted continuing claims for the week ending March 25 rose 6K to 1.823 million. Meanwhile, Challenger’s Job-Cut Report showed corporate intentions to layoff 89,703 workers in March, up from 77,770 in February.

Wall Street’s response to the data was mixed, in light of the confusion added by the change in seasonality formulas. Stock futures came under additional pressure as recession fears increased, but the dollar index rallied along with Treasury yields on ideas that this does not prevent the Fed from doing another rate hike early next month. Even so, Fed fund futures this morning are trading 58% odds of no rate hike and 42% odds of a 25-basis point rate hike, which is similar to where we were yesterday. The focus now shifts to a rare monthly jobs report release on a holiday tomorrow morning, making traders wait until Sunday night before they can trade it. Analysts expect that report to show that the economy created 240K jobs in March, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. Those numbers would provide little incentive for the Fed to pause its rate hikes if verified, in my opinion. Analysts expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year. That would be an increase month-on-month, but a decrease year-on-year.

Both China and the United States increased their military activity in the waters around Taiwan amid high tensions following yesterday’s meeting between U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in California. Outside the movement of military assets in the Taiwan Strait, China’s response has been relatively restrained thus far - limited to threats and warnings. China’s Foreign Ministry accused the United States of supporting Taiwan separatists, stating that the Taiwan issue is the first red line in China-U.S. relations that must not be crossed. The National People’s Congress made a rare statement condemning the move by the United States as gravely violating the one-China principle and severely undermining China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. China’s Defense Ministry stated that the People’s Liberation Army always maintains a high vigilance and resolutely defends national sovereignty and territorial integrity. We will likely see more steps of retribution come from China in the days ahead – perhaps over the three-day holiday weekend – that will necessitate caution by traders today. China may be waiting until French President Macron completes his three-day visit to China tomorrow before taking more action. He’s currently in China with more than 50 corporate CEOs to discuss trade issues.

The OPEC+ surprise announcement on Monday that it would cut output spurred fears of a return to inflation amid a resilient economy. That supported money flow into the commodity sector to protect portfolios against the erosion of inflation. However, this week’s series of job-related data releases quickly changed the narrative back to recession fears again. Traders view all supply and demand fundamental news through the perception that recession will destroy demand, placing less focus on supply risks. The path of least resistance is lower in this environment as the market tries to support demand. Crude oil prices halted the sharp rally that started on Monday, but they’ve thus far held inside of Monday’s trading range. That’s not been the case though with the grain and oilseed sector, which continues to face recessionary headwinds. The exception this morning is with the hard wheat markets in Kansas City and Minneapolis, where weather concerns are once again grabbing the headlines.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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