Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 9

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Thu, 09 Apr 2026, 11:58

April 9 – Perception is reality in the markets, and headlines continue to shape those perceptions. Sometimes the facts haven’t changed much, but the perceptions do, based on the headlines, and that continues to be the case. This roller coaster is likely to continue for a while, especially since Iran and the United States appear to still be far apart – truce or no truce – and various attacks still going on. Stock futures pulled back modestly overnight from yesterday’s big gains. The VIX firmed to trade near 21, while the dollar index slipped to 98.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries traded near 4.28%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 3.78%. Crude oil prices were back up near $99 per barrel, while the grain and oilseeds followed the energies higher overnight.

This was never going to have a nice ending – peaceful with everything wrapped up in a bow. I commented on that early last month. I believe that the White House knew that to be the case when they joined Israel in making the first hit on Iran on February 28, but they deemed the opportunity to take out Iran’s leadership and nuclear threat too tempting of a proposition. After all, Iran’s regime has been chanting “death to Israel” and “death to America” for 47 years of endless strikes on various military and civilian targets, all the while seeking to enrich uranium to make nuclear bombs. The leadership of both countries had to take that threat serious. It’s easy to criticize the strike, but what president wants to be the one guilty of not responding when they had a chance, only to let that chance go and experience a nuclear hit from Iran? It may or may not have been the right choice, but none of us would have wanted to be in that position with that responsibility to make that assessment.

So, where to we go from here? I stated from the start that taking out the nuclear threat and bringing this conflict to a nice conclusion are two very different things. I doubt that anyone in the White House thought that this would have a nice conclusion, but that is where we now find ourselves – trying to map out an acceptable end to the conflict. A peaceful conclusion would mean destroying every single member of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as every single radical around the world, in sleeper cells and elsewhere. That simply isn’t going to happen. Dying for the cause is the religion of those that we’re facing. They only negotiate to draw things out hoping that the “soft” westerners tire of the fight. Most of us do not have the same passion and commitment to peace that they do for spreading pain and destruction. We’re not in it for the long haul – we don’t have the stomach for it. So, the negotiations continue, even as the military strikes continue. Energy infrastructure is hit. It will need to be repaired, and some of that will take years to accomplish. Fertilizer is in the same boat. The money continues to slosh around, depending on how the latest headline shapes perception. But the reality is, we’re going to be short of energy and fertilizer for quite some time – perhaps years – and that’s after this conflict ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

When will the Strait of Hormuz actually reopen with full traffic moving through it unhindered? That question hasn’t been answered yet. Iran wants payment of at least $1 per barrel of oil on each tanker to safely pass through the Strait – paid in bitcoin to avoid sanctions. That’s unacceptable to many of Iran’s neighbors who also depend on the Strait for their economic wellbeing. That risks pulling other Gulf States into the conflict – joining Israel and the United States in the fight against Iran. That in turn would likely increase the strikes on energy / fertilizer infrastructure, and lengthen the time required for supply to balance with demand after this is all over. Then there’s the two-week “truce.” There’s still a significant risk of no agreement at the end of two weeks, but seldom do parties agree before the 11^th hour ahead of the deadline. As such, we’re likely to see quite a bit of fireworks right ahead of the two-week deadline as well, if things don’t fall apart before then. Brace for a wild ride in the meantime.

USDA is scheduled to release its monthly WASDE crop report for the food-based commodities today at Noon Eastern Time. This is normally a quiet report with few changes of note, but surprises do happen. Look for USDA to bump its soybean crush estimate, while matching that with a cut in exports. It may also raise corn exports again, but if so, it may cut feed usage to match. We’ll also likely see some tweaking of USDA’s South American corn and soybean production estimates. The focus will slowly increase on both the Brazil and U.S. growing season weather when war headlines aren’t shaping reality, but thus far there’s not a story there. The bottom line is that corn and wheat supplies are large enough to make justification of recent prices difficult if we’re moving toward peace, but the opposite is true if we’re headed for global food shortages. The latter would take some time to unfold, but the risk remains nonetheless if fertilizer shortages look to be a longer-term problem, which seems to be the direction that we’re headed currently. The greatest volatility is expected to remain with the food and energy commodity sector in the months ahead, with money sloshing in and out depending on the latest headline. We’re likely looking at an active several months ahead – possibly longer.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

Grains & Oilseeds

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