Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 11 Aug 2022, 13:24

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

August 11 – Stock traders are upbeat again this morning following more positive inflation data. The VIX is trading below 20 this morning, after falling to four-month lows Wednesday. The dollar index is again lower after a big sell-off on Wednesday’s inflation data, with the greenback trading near 104.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.75%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.15%. The broader commodity sector continued to find support overnight as well, with crude oil prices 1% higher, and the grain and oilseed markets posting similar gains.

The producer price index fell 0.5% month-on-month in July, reflecting deflation rather than inflation. That compares to the 1.1% inflation rate seen the prior month, and analyst expectations of 0.3% gains. The PPI was still up 9.8% year-on-year in July, but that was down from 11.3% the previous month, and below the 10.3% anticipated by analysts. Again, most of the decline reflected weakness in commodity prices during the month, which cut costs for producers. That becomes evident when we look at the core PPI that excludes the food and energy sectors. The core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in July, although that was still down from 0.4% gains the previous month. The core PPI rose 7.6% year-on-year in July, which was down from 8.2% the previous month and down from analyst expectations of 7.8%. Today’s data will again fuel the peak inflation mantra on Wall Street, leading to thoughts that inflation will soon be in our rear-view mirror. I do not know if we will reach new highs in inflation in the months ahead. Much of that will hinge on several potential developments of the next six months. However, the structural issues behind inflation are still not fixed, suggesting that overall inflation will remain strong – perhaps into next year. The key factor I’m watching longer-term will be Europe’s natural gas market through the winter. Shortages are already shifting industry to already-tight global diesel supplies. Continued shortages threaten production of fertilizer and other necessary crop inputs for the global 2023 crops.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 262K in the week ending August 6, up from 248K the prior week (revised down from 260K), and up from analyst expectations of 260K. That pushed the four-week moving average to 252K claims, up from 247.5K the prior week. Continuing claims rose 8K to 1.428 million in the week ending July 30. This number is still near historical lows, but it has started trending higher. Nobody wants more people to be unemployed, but it’s actually something that must happen to cool overall inflation, with the unemployment rate needing to push closer to 5.5%, up from the current 3.5% level.

Twelve ships have left Ukrainian ports loaded with grain thus far under the recent safe-passage agreement. They’ve been stuck in port since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24^th. Four vessels have thus far been approved to travel to Ukraine to pick up loads. Most of these vessels are smaller ships to this point. Ukraine’s State Customs Service reports that the country exported 600K metric tons of grain in the first 10 days of the month, with 400K of that total going over land to the west, while 200K left by water. Ukraine remains optimistic that it can export 2 – 5 million metric tons of grain per month through its ports over water, but it remains a long way from that goal, and even that pace would still limit exports below levels previously seen before the war. I remain a skeptic that Russia will allow this to continue longer-term, as Ukraine’s exports allow it to raise revenue needed to defend itself. But Russia does have a vested interest in seeing the mines removed that are protecting the Ukrainian ports.

I remain quite concerned about the global corn balance sheet as we head into the Northern Hemisphere harvest, but I am not yet impressed by the bullish conviction of the funds, which is probably needed to sustain a rally for rationing demand longer-term. That may take greater proof of losses in the weeks ahead. Temperatures remain above normal in the U.S. western Ag Belt, although the two-week outlook has moderated. Showers are also expected over the next two weeks over most of the Midwest, although totals will likely remain below normal over most western areas. I still see the risk of the U.S. crop in the low 170s area for the national corn yield, although we may not see that before the September or October USDA crop report. I expect tomorrow’s report to reflect a pretty good crop, as of August 1^st. However, I also expect it to show planted acreage down by at least 450K – perhaps more than that. But the European crop should be down by much more than the U.S. crop, due to severe drought this summer, along with lower fertilizer application rates. Look for USDA to start downgrading Europe’s corn crop tomorrow from its current estimate of 68 mmt, but that crop could eventually fall into the mid- to low-50s. Such a short crop should increase wheat feeding, while increasing imports of corn and U.S. grain sorghum.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.