Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 11 Aug 2025, 13:44

August 11 – Stock futures were quietly higher overnight as we start the new trading week, with increased focus on negotiations in the Black Sea, as well as with China. The VIX is trading below 16 this morning, reflecting relatively low fear levels on Wall Street, while the dollar index is trading near 98.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.28%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.77%. Crude oil prices are trading modestly higher this morning, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly higher, led by soybeans on China trade deal hopes spurred by a tweet from President Trump last night.

President Trump and Russian President Putin are talking regarding the possibility of peace in Ukraine, with formal talks expected at the end of this week. It is yet to be seen whether the talks will yield a peace agreement, but they are talking. President Putin is also talking with President Xi of China. It’s interesting to note that President Putin seemed eager to find an exit from the Ukraine war earlier this year, until Xi made a visit to Moscow. The war has escalated since that point. China has a lot to lose if we reach peace in Ukraine. First, that can give the United States access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. China currently controls 90% of the world’s processed supplies, and it is holding onto them tightly, using them in negotiations to reach its objectives. Second, Putin may not need Xi if he establishes a working relationship with Trump. None of the three leaders trust the others, and with good reason. But any of the three would be happy to leverage one of the other three against the third if it serves their purpose. Xi is worried that Putin could align with Trump to protect his interests against his neighbor China if Putin and Trump are able to reach agreements on Black Sea issues. Finally, Xi needs Trump’s military assets tied up in the Black Sea so that they cannot focus on the Indo-Pacific region where China has been an aggressor.

Negotiations with China took a turn overnight when President Trump posted on social media, “China is worried about its shortage of soybeans. Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s Trade Deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President Xi.” November soybeans surged to $10.15 per bushel, up from Friday’s settlement of $9.875. Corn and wheat benefited from the optimism as well. The president’s social media post does not mean that we have a trade deal. Nor is it likely that we’ll see Chinese soybean purchases quadruple. It would be a big deal if we just saw a 50% increase in purchases, but what are the odds of that happening? There have long been rumors in China’s cash market that we could see a renewal of the Phase One trade deal reached under Trump 1.0. Hopes of that have cooled significantly in recent weeks. It could happen at any time. It could happen next week. But it could also happen two years from now. The bottom line is that the president’s post tells us that Ag is again on his radar as negotiations with China pick up some momentum. That’s a positive development. But I’m wary of reading too much into it until I see more movement in the positions of the two countries.

China and the United States have thus far only been able to agree to periodic extensions of highly escalated tariff rates, and to restricted movement of rare earth minerals and magnets from China to the United States in exchange for the ability to buy lower-level advanced chips from Nvidia and AMD. The two countries remain far apart on many issues. The United States is the top economy in the world with the top military in the world. China has stated that it wants to be number one in both of those categories. That naturally creates mistrust between the two, and it means that the two will butt heads on a number of different issues. That will continue. China built its economy on using cheap labor to make the world dependent on buying its goods from Chinese factories. The trade surpluses that created helped to fund the development of its economy and its military. It also increased the attractiveness of its industry for investment by Foreign Direct Investment, which also helped to build its economy and its military. Both exports and FDI are now hurting due to the geopolitical tensions and current tariff negotiations. China’s economy is now dependent on a plethora of stimulus programs that are growing China’s fiscal debt.

USDA will release its August WASDE crop report at Noon Eastern Time tomorrow, August 12. The primary focus will be on its corn and soybean yields. This month’s yields will be based on farmer surveys (USDA assumes they understate yields), crop ratings and satellite data – the latter is at record highs for this time of year. StoneX’s customer survey asks, “based on what you currently see (August 4), what do you think the final yield in your trade territory will be?” The answer to that question will be different September 1, October 1, and November 1. It’s interesting to note that USDA raised its corn yield in August 17X in the past 32 years going back to 1993. The final corn yield came in lower than the August estimate in 11 of those 17 years, while matching it once, and being larger 5X. In other words, big crops don’t always get bigger. It’s yet to be seen whether this year’s crop will.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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