Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 25

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 25 Aug 2026, 13:13

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

August 25 – Stock futures are pointing to a higher open, with the Dow Jones looking to add to yesterday's gains while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq looking at a turnaround Tuesday. The VIX is roughly unchanged to start the day, hovering in the mid 15.8’s at the time of writing. The dollar is quietly higher again, still attempting to find its footing near the 99.0 level after last week’s sharp selloff. Treasury yields are moving lower to start the day, with 2-year yields pushing below 4.21%, while 10-year yields push below 4.66%, and 30-year yields below 5.19%. This cooldown in yields, especially at the longer end of the curve, is certainly welcomed news for the market amid bigger picture concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, but we’ll have to see if it can last. Crude oil is sharply lower to start the day after yesterday’s announcement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent came in less aggressive than feared and increased expectations that the U.S. will seek to escalate economically rather than militarily, potentially translating to less risk of longer-term damage to supply in the region. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi also noted that “significant progress” had been made in negotiations between the two sides, supporting ideas that these measures could act as a restart for more notable peace talks, though harsh rhetoric from Iranian officials do contrast with this. Nearby WTI is down 3.4% this morning, trading near $82.10, while nearby Brent is down 3.0%, trading near $87.80. Meanwhile, the ags are lower almost across the board despite a largely more bullish than expected USDA Crop Progress report after yesterday’s close.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast” at his highly anticipated press conference yesterday afternoon, aimed at increasing economic pressure on Iran in order to bring an end to the stalemate but, all in all, details were somewhat lacking. Sanctions on roughly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels were announced, but the bigger escalation was the threat of more serious secondary sanctions on nations continuing to do business with Iran. The elephant in the room here is China. They are far and away Iran’s top trading partner, but Bessent was clearly very measured in refusing to mention China specifically, whether in his Sunday op-ed in the Financial Times or his prepared remarks at yesterday's press conference. Reporters took note of this, asking him directly about sanctioning Chinese banks or other entities, and he was again measured in his wording, responding simply “no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions.”

He did, however, tease plans to sanction a “major” financial institution before the end of the week, raising speculation as to whether this could be a Chinese entity, or simply an Iranian-linked institution. In my own opinion, yesterday’s press conference appears to be something of a warning shot. It’s clear that the administration is trying to give China and other Iranian trading partners a window to wind down trade with Iran before escalation, but it will be critical to see if they actually use this window to comply or simply continue business as usual. Iran has spent decades perfecting the art of skirting sanctions and have a long list of partners in third-party nations that have helped make this possible, though it is intentionally hard to track and/or enforce. Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to travel to the U.S. in one month, and yesterday’s announcement adds significantly more intrigue to the lead-up to that meeting, both in the commodity space and for the broader global economy.

U.S. corn conditions dropped 3% week-over-week to 57% good/excellent on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, much sharper than the anticipated 1% decline. This is now 14% behind the same week last year and 4% behind the previous five-year average, with the sharpest weekly declines being seen in North Dakota (-7%), Colorado (-7%), Ohio (-5%), and Nebraska (-4%). This gives the appearance that USDA employees were keeping a close eye on last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour and adds additional intrigue to next month's September WASDE to see if yields are cut further. Soybean conditions fell a lesser 1% week-over-week to now sit at 60% good/excellent versus the average analyst estimate of holding steady at 61%. This puts U.S. soybean ratings 9% behind this time last year and 2% behind the previous five-year average. Personally, I was a bit surprised to see USDA cut their soybean yield estimate on the August WASDE, and it will be interesting to see what direction they go in next month.

Spring wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, advancing another 21% week-over-week, notably faster than the average estimate of 16%, to now sit at 62% complete. This remains the fastest pace of spring wheat harvest seen since 2021, now sitting 11% ahead of this time last year and 10% above the previous five-year average. At the same time, U.S. spring wheat conditions unexpectedly dropped 1% to sit at 51% good/excellent, with top producer North Dakota’s 5% week-over-week decline more than offsetting the 7% gain seen in Montana and 6% gain seen in Idaho. On the winter wheat side, USDA did not publish any harvest progress data, signifying the official end of the season. Before we know it, the focus will shift to winter wheat planting season in the months ahead.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 24

August 24 – Stocks futures are pointing to a lower open to start the week amid a resumption of trade tensions and concerns regarding the potential downstream impact which we’ll dive into in more depth below. The VIX is elevated in response but still remains on the lower end of what we’ve seen in 2026, hovering around the 15.9 level at the time of writing. The dollar is quietly higher to start the week, appearing to find its footing after last week’s sharp break lower as it trades near 98.93. Treasuries are mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields rising to hover near 4.245% while long-term yields are off slightly, with 10-year yields trading at 4.714% and 30-year yields trading just below 5.24%. Crude oil is quietly lower this morning, with nearby WTI down roughly 1.2% on the day to trade near $85.60 and nearby Brent down 3.2% to trade near $91.40. The ags are mixed but mostly higher, led by corn after Friday’s shockingly low Pro Farmer Crop Tour yield estimate which we’ll also dive into in more depth below.

Mike CastleMon, 24 Aug 2026, 13:06

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 21

August 21 - Stocks maintained modest gains at midday as we prepare to head into the weekend. The VIX is trading near 15, while the dollar index trades near 98.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.74%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil prices are near $87 per barrel, while Brent trades near $94. December corn futures probed above key chart resistance above $5.065, but they have since stalled out there. Wheat and soybean prices are weaker ahead of the weekend, with soyoil prices under pressure ahead of an impending announcement from the EPA regarding 2025 small refinery exemptions.

Arlan SudermanFri, 21 Aug 2026, 15:41

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Black Sea Export Concentration Keeps Repricing Wheat and Corn Markets

Two countries handle a share of world wheat and corn exports large enough that attacks on their ports reset prices for everyone else. South America has room to gain from the disruption, but the size of that gain differs sharply between Argentina and Brazil.

Editorial TeamFri, 21 Aug 2026, 14:34

Grains & Oilseeds

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