Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 27 Aug 2025, 12:31

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

August 27 – U.S. equities futures are largely unchanged this morning, after an up day yesterday and a move back towards Friday’s record highs; the trade will likely be on edge all day as tech giant Nvidia releases their second quarter results after the bell. The U.S. dollar is higher against a basket of foreign currencies, though still holding below Friday’s high – in range-bound trade since that volatile session. WTI crude oil is higher this morning but quietly off Monday’s top, while the VIX remains subdued below the 15-point level. Two-year treasury yields have slid to their lowest since May 1 following Fed allegations, while longer-term yields are steady as the curve steepens.

Nvidia has become the symbol for technology and AI progress and the needle for tariff effects – analysts are looking for a sizeable swing in the S&P and NASDAQ in particular post-earnings results tomorrow, if a volatile report is seen. That’s not to mention individual company shares, which are ticking higher in early trade on earnings optimism. The company’s China business hangs in the balance amid the U.S.-China trade war; China accounted for 13% of Nvidia revenue last year, and they reported that tariffs could shave off $8 billion in sales in Q2. They’re still expected to report strong growth this afternoon – a 50+ percent increase for the second quarter – but that pales in comparison to triple-digit growth in recent periods.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 0.5% on the week ending August 22, after a 1.4% decline during the week prior as well; home purchases rose 2.2% after rising 0.1% the previous week, while refinancings fell 3.5% after falling 3.1% in the prior week. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked higher from 6.68% to 6.69%; that’s still on the low end of the steady high-sixes range since late January, the last time mortgage rates averaged over 7%. The U.S. housing market continues to struggle amid “high” mortgage rates, with consumers continuing to look for lower interest rates overall heading into the end of calendar 2025. Pending home sales data for July is on the way tomorrow morning, with a second straight month of declines expected, though weekly jobless claims will be the main focus of a larger economic dataset tomorrow.

U.S. weather maps below are courtesy of Nutrien Ag Weather; longer-term outlooks have been wavering overall but the most-watched European model seems to be fairly set with a cool and dry extended outlook for the Midwest as rains remain south and southwest. It’s already been a dry week for the encircled area below right; do we have enough moisture for a strong finish for these crops? River levels are falling quickly as well, indicating declining moisture supplies. At any rate, it should speed up the path towards harvest and get the combines into the fields earlier, so we can start to see exactly how big the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops wind up…

image-20250827073043-1

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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