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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence Analyst

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

President Trump announced that talks with Iran would resume later today, claiming that he called off a “massive attack” on the country due to the pleading of their Middle Eastern neighbors. Iran of course denies asking for any such meetings, instead talking with Oman to attempt to establish a safe route through the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, Trump has announced strike call-offs and upcoming meetings on multiple occasions, dating back as far as a March 21 planned attack and March 23 “production conversations”. Some vessel movement has been reported through the Strait, near the Omani coast; eight vessels are in transit at this point while a whopping 455 are still waiting.

Manufacturing and construction spending data is on tap later this morning and plenty more economic releases will fill the week, culminating with Friday’s employment numbers. The trade is looking for an 80k rise in nonfarm payrolls for July, rebounding slightly from a disappointing 57k in June and a general downslide since March. The national unemployment rate is seen steady from June at 4.2%; that number has trended slightly lower throughout calendar 2026. Uncertainty remains over the state of the U.S. economy, with investors not seeing any real Fed plan to bring down inflation and ultimately start interest rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool still shows another 25-basis-point rise in the next Fed meeting in September, and that number likely holding into calendar 2027.

The grain markets took a hit overnight with WTI crude oil down around $5 per barrel, but have mostly tried to regain ground since; China’s purchase of around a million tonnes of U.S. soybeans on Friday didn’t provide much initial support. Wheat saw some support due to the intensifying of fighting on the Russia-Ukraine front, in contrast to the Middle East where negotiations are supposedly on tap. The standard NWS maps below have a rare look to them; the corn belt has seen hot and dry forecasts all summer but mostly received just-in-time rains, and now these extended maps are finally on the wetter side of normal. Temperatures remain warm through mid-August, though.  

image-20260803074717-1

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