Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 07 Aug 2025, 13:28

Today's Perspective Video: Trump’s Strategy Fuels Uncertainty: What It Means for Rates, Consumers & Corn Yields

August 7 – Stock futures had a positive tone overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly jobs data, as positive earnings reports and rate cut hopes continue to lift market sentiment. This morning’s jobless data and productivity numbers did little to change that sentiment, even though today is the day that many countries see President Trump’s higher tariff rates go into effect. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, reflecting very low fear levels on Wall Street, while the dollar index is trading near 98.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.72%. We’re seeing a bit of a bounce in the Ag and energy sectors this morning after prices broke to new lows for the move in many of these markets earlier this week, but they have now bounced modestly on value buying.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose modestly to 226K in the week ending August 2, up from 219K the previous week, and above analyst expectations of 220K, but still a relatively low number. The four-week moving average was slightly lower at 220.75K claims, down from 221.25K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending July 26 rose 38K to 1.974 million, which is its highest level since November 2021. The four-week moving average for continuing claims rose by 5K to 1.952 million. First-time claims for unemployment benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 708 in the week ending July 26, down 14 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian employees rose to 7,831 in the week ending July 19, up 424 from the previous week. This morning’s report continues the trend that we’ve been seeing in recent months. Employers are generally not in a lay-off mode, but neither are they refilling empty positions amid the current uncertainty. As such, we don’t have a lot of people losing their jobs, but those who do are unemployed for longer.

Non-farm productivity rose at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, beating expectations of 1.9% growth. First quarter productivity was revised to -1.8%, down from the -1.5% originally reported. The increased productivity in the second quarter resulted then in lower unit labor costs, which rose at a 1.6% annual rate, down from analyst expectations of 2.1%. First quarter unit labor costs grew at 6.9% due to the declines in productivity during that quarter, up from the 6.6% annual rate that was originally reported. Overall, these numbers reflect improved efficiency in the economy and a return to some stability after a volatile first quarter.

President Trump believes in getting the best deal possible in any negotiation, leading him to be more aggressive in pushing his points than many politicians are comfortable doing. It’s more of a high-risk-high-reward strategy. His use of this strategy comes at a time when China faced problems of a weakening resolve among BRICS members to support its anti-West agenda. However, President Trump’s higher tariffs on Brazil and India may have changed that. Brazil’s President Lula rejected direct talks with Trump regarding Trump’s 50% tariff on his country. Rather, he’s talking with India and China about a joint response. Tensions have been elevated between China and India, but India’s Prime Minister Modi is planning his first trip to China in seven years to discuss relations after Trump pushed his tariff rate on India to 50% because it is buying Russian crude oil. It’s yet to be seen how this will play out, but China is no longer alone in its resistance to President Trump’s tariffs.

One of China’s greatest long-term challenges is its low birth rate, which has fallen below its death rate leading to an aging declining population. China ended its one-child policy in 2015, but it’s been unable to reverse the one-child culture that it created with decades of the policy in place. It’s now initiating a national childcare subsidy equal to $1,500 per child under age 3, which is pretty big in China’s economy. It’s also offering fee waivers for the first year of pre-school. However, the number of marriage licenses issued last year fell by 20%, and it is illegal to have a child outside of marriage in China, suggesting a continued decline in the birth rate.

December corn futures dropped below support at the psychological $4 level on Wednesday, but they then rallied to settle the trading session just above it. That helped support some follow-through value buying overnight. The average trade guess reflects expectations that USDA will peg the corn yield at 184.3 bushels per acre, up from 181.0 bpa in July. There’s a strong tendency for the final corn yield to fall below the August estimate when the August estimate is raised from the July estimate. The pattern in recent years has been for warmer drier conditions during final grain fill to take the top off of corn yields. It’s yet to be seen whether that will be the case this year. That said, I’ve noticed that this year’s corn price pattern is tracking very close to last year’s price pattern, which posted its harvest low in August, before the bulk of the harvest began. Considering the fact that corn production estimates have been so high, we need to respect the possibility that we price in all of the bearish news early again this year.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.