Perspective: Morning Commentary for December 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 02 Dec 2022, 14:20

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

December 2 – It’s “jobs” day on Wall Street, as traders react to the latest monthly data from the employment sector. Stock futures fell sharply in the minutes following the release of the jobs report. The VIX is hovering near 21 this morning, after dipping below 20 for the first time since August 18 on Thursday. The dollar index is trading near 105.2, after hitting a five-month low near 104.4 earlier in the session. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.60%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.36%, with both jumping roughly 10 basis points following the release of this morning’s jobs numbers. Crude oil prices reversed lower on the jobs data, while the grain and oilseed markets have a negative bias once again.

The economy created 263K jobs in November, beating analyst estimates of 200K job creations. Furthermore, the October data was revised to show 284K jobs created, up from the 261K originally reported. Leisure and hospitality added another 88K jobs, while the government added 40K and construction added 20K jobs. Manufacturing added 14K jobs in November, despite recent reports showing contraction in that sector. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in October, matching analyst expectations. The labor participation rate ticked lower to 62.1%, down from 62.2% the previous month and below analyst expectations that it would improve to 62.3%. Furthermore, average hourly earnings rose 0.6% month-on-month in November, doubling analyst expectations of 0.3% growth and up from an upwardly revised 0.5% the previous month. Average hourly earnings were up 5.1% year-on-year in November, up from 4.9% in October and up from analyst expectations of 4.6%. So, the bottom line from today’s numbers is that the jobs market remains quite tight. The unemployment rate is still very low, the economy is still creating jobs, and wage inflation is growing, rather than slowing. Traders fear that today’s numbers will result in the Federal Reserve maintaining its monetary tightening pace, rather than slowing it. Good news is bad news to traders.

Covid continues to make headlines in China, resulting in a mixture of excited anticipation of reduced restrictions, as well as fear as to what that may mean. Mass protests in recent days reflect the frustration of a population that has lived under tight restrictions, lockdowns, and government quarantine centers for too long. The government is responding by lifting restrictions where it feels that it can do so, leading to hopes that China’s economy may reopen early next year. However, Chinese stocks came under pressure today as traders contemplated what might truly happen if they get what they hope for with a reopened economy. There’s very little herd immunity in China due to its tight restrictions of the past three years. China’s population is weighted toward the elderly – vulnerable with other health complications. A large portion of the elderly population has thus far refused vaccinations, because trust is lacking in this sector of society. China’s healthcare system is much less developed than it is the United States or much of Europe. Suddenly, reality is hitting that opening up the economy may be a costly and bumpy road with significant challenges of its own.

Soybean oil futures locked the daily limit lower for much of Thursday’s trading session, with follow-through selling in today’s market as well. I outlined for you yesterday some of the reasons for the weaker soyoil market, which spread into sharply weaker soybean futures as well. Crush is at historically strong levels with high oil yields. A couple of renewable diesel plants went down, leading to some sizeable deliveries of unused oil. Managed money had built large ownership, which it began to liquidate. Everything started feeding on itself. However, another factor came into play later on Thursday. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency delivered the final rule that canola oil derived renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel and other biofuels now qualify as “advanced biofuels” under the Renewable Fuel Standard program. That allows canola oil to compete directly with soyoil as a feedstock for renewable diesel and other advanced biofuels. Soyoil must now compete with canola oil for the business.

Ukrainian farmers continue to battle significant challenges to complete the harvest of this year’s crops, as winter sets in across the region, and with 90% of the country dark with no electricity. Most crops are harvested already, but 40% of the corn crop remains in the field. That number continues to come down, but very slowly. Yet, that has done little to change sentiment in the grain and oilseeds markets, where the path of least resistance remains lower. StoneX Brazil pegs its soybean crop at 155.1 million metric tons. That would be an increase of more than 1 billion bushels from last year’s crop if it verifies. All-corn production is expected to be up by more than a half billion bushels as well (550 million), if the weather continues to cooperate in Brazil, offsetting Argentine problems.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.