Perspective: Morning Commentary for February 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 22 Feb 2023, 14:41

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

February 22 – Stock futures attempted a modest bounce overnight, following big losses on Tuesday on re-emerging economic worries, along with heightened geopolitical risks. Traders are also nervous ahead of this afternoon’s release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The VIX traded to a new seven-week high just below 24 early this morning, reflecting those rising anxiety levels. The dollar index is trading near 104.2 this morning as Treasury yields continue to trend higher. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.92%, after probing new three-month highs near 3.97% overnight, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.67%. The broader commodity sector faces headwinds this morning, with crude oil modestly lower, and the grain and oilseed markets are lower as well.

We are two days away from the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By all accounts, Russia expected to be in control of Ukraine within a matter of days, but that didn’t happen. The Ukrainian people had more fight in them than expected, and the Russian troops were not prepared for the battle. It drug on well into the year. The longer the fight endured, the more the West was impressed with the fight in the Ukrainian people, resulting in offers of military equipment to help them to defend their homeland. That military aid continued to increase throughout the year, making Russian advances even more difficult to the point where Ukraine was able to take back some of the occupied land. Russia responded by increasing its commitment of both troops and weapons, engaging in a scorched-earth approach to destroy critical water and power infrastructure across Ukraine using missiles and drones. Russia currently occupies roughly one-fifth of the land of Ukraine, but its missile and drone attacks have stretched from border to border across the country.

Russia is big on anniversary dates, which is why Ukraine is bracing for a possible larger offensive on Friday. Russia sees no reason why a nuclear power should lose a major military conflict, and it is committed to winning this war at all costs. However, U.S. President Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv in Ukraine on Monday was symbolic of the West’s commitment to make sure that Ukraine wins this war with Russia. That suggests that the war in Ukraine is not anywhere close to over, but rather that it could further escalate in the days, weeks and months ahead, further putting at risk the plethora of vital commodities that come out of the region. China has been trying to provide quiet support for Russia, without appearing to be directly involved in the conflict. However, China is now increasingly worried that a prolonged war increases the risks of Russia losing, and China needs the support of Russia in its own battle with the West. As such, China is getting more directly involved. There are rumors of Chinese consideration of contributing arms to Russia, but it’s bigger focus at this point appears to be seeking a negotiated solution. It suggests that it will offer a plan for peace late this week. Don’t be surprised if that plan includes its promise to protect Russia from invasion if Russia will accept a cease-fire that includes it maintaining control of occupied territory. That would be unacceptable to Ukraine, which insists that Russia must give back that territory, including Crimea, which Russia occupied in 2014. This war is far from over.

China took another step toward confrontation today, further preparing its people for the need to stand up to the United States. Its official state media ran a 4,000-word hit piece on the United States on Monday, which I outlined briefly in my commentary. It followed that today by publishing the “Global Security Initiative (GSI) Concept Paper” that explains in detail its proposed plan for bringing peace to the world. The GSI plan was originally proposed by President Xi Jinping last April, but it is now provided as a detailed blueprint for tackling global and regional hotspot issues and to solve disputes through dialogue as outlined in today’s China Direct newsletter published by our Shanghai office. China claims that 80 countries and regional organizations have endorsed or supported the initiative thus far. Analysts say that the paper clearly targets the United States, and they worry that it will be viewed by the West as another ambitious attempt by China to prompt a new type of international order, creating even more confrontation and further intensifying the rivalry between the two. The bottom line is that relations with China are also deteriorating, rather than getting better, and China is the world’s largest importer of commodities.

Commodity prices faced headwinds overnight from the outside markets. Wheat prices succumbed to bearish forces yesterday, with corn and soybeans pulled into modest losses overnight. This is a critical time for the soybean market as it tries to balance active farmer selling in areas harvesting a big soybean crop in Brazil with worries about how a short crop in Argentina could contribute to tight oil and meal supplies. A look at Argentina’s growing season suggests that its soybean crop “could” drop into the low 30s million metric tons. There is a path whereby the created deficit in Argentina could be filled with imports from Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil. It would take quite an importing campaign, but that potential does exist if the crush margins are there, and the infrastructure works. Failure to do so would also create quite a financial challenge for Argentina’s economy, which is dependent on the taxes collected from soybean, soyoil, and soymeal exports. This market must now balance that risk with rising Brazilian cash sales.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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