Perspective: Morning Commentary for February 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 24 Feb 2022, 14:32

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

February 24 – A full invasion of Ukraine began overnight, sending stocks plummeting and commodity prices surging. The VIX surged to a one-month high near 38 overnight as Wall Street fears spiked. The dollar index surged by more than 100 basis points to 97.3, putting it at three-week highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell below 1.85% as money flowed into the safe-haven assets of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Crude oil prices spiked above $100 per barrel earlier today on fears that Russian supplies will be taken off the table, while many of the grain and oilseed contracts hit daily limit higher moves on similar fears. More than 100 ships are said to be backed up at the Kerch Strait between Crimea and mainland Russia, meaning that commodities are not flowing through the strait.

Russian President Putin gave the orders to begin his war of bullets, while the West countered with a war of words. Putin made a strong move on the chess board overnight, targeting Ukraine’s capital Kyiv. It started yesterday with a cyber attack to take out key communications and banking networks, followed by airstrikes to take out strategic military targets, followed by tanks rolling across the border from different directions. Putin already has control over Belarus, and he may soon have control over Ukraine. He’s striking at the heart of the country, going for its capital to install a puppet regime. The West is confounded that its sanctions have not stopped Putin, who seems bent on building his legacy by rebuilding the Former Soviet Union. Millions of Ukrainian citizens refused to flee ahead of the invasion; choosing instead to fight for their country on the streets of Kyiv and every other city in Ukraine. This is a human catastrophe playing out before us – the largest battle on European soil since World War II.

It’s the uncertainty that has stocks plummeting this morning, with many of the commodities surging higher. How far will Putin go? Will he stop with Ukraine? What will be the scope of damage? The Black Sea Region is a major exporter of energy, food commodities and fertilizer for producing those commodities. Shipping lanes have already been disrupted, amid reports that more than 100 ships are backed up at the Kerch Strait. Nobody knows whether this is a short-term or long-term disruption, but for now, the available supply of many commodities has been dramatically reduced on the global market. The general thinking is that Ukraine may fall quickly, sadly enough for those Ukrainian citizens who lose their lives, but positive for commodity movement. However, we don’t know what the lingering effect will be of sanctions and other trade-disrupting steps that could be taken in the days ahead.

Crude oil and natural gas prices surged on fears that pipelines may be shut down, but that’s still an unknown. Crude oil, wheat, and corn shipments dependent on movement through the Black Sea are a greater concern currently, along with fertilizer shipments. Urea fertilizer for April loading at New Orleans surged by more than 30% this morning to $710 per ton. We live in a global market. Russia exports 7 million metric tons, or 14% of global export volume of urea fertilizer, with supplies already tight. It also exports between 1.8 and 2.7 mmt of Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) fertilizer, accounting for between 23 and 31% of global exports, along with accounting for 19% of the world’s potash fertilizer operating capacity. This doesn’t account for potential lost European nitrogen fertilizer production if we see Russia reduce flows of natural gas to Europe in response to the West’s sanctions. Nor does it include possible lost potash flowing out of Belarus, which accounts for another 15% of operating capacity. The potential loss of fertilizer availability, let alone the price spike, could impact global grain and oilseed production in the year ahead as the Brazil plants its safrinha corn crop, and as the Northern Hemisphere approaches its 2022 growing season. The list of “potential” ramifications continues to grow.

USDA’s Annual Outlook Forum began today with plenty of attention from the industry. Let me be clear, I have a very cynical view of this annual conference. I’ve been working in the industry for four decades, and it is difficult for me to remember times when this venue revealed any new trends in agriculture that were not already known by those of us working in the industry. Much focus is put on USDA’s acreage and production estimates for the coming growing season, as well as its 10-year baseline projections. Yet, these are largely put together by economists working in their respective offices with little input from either producers or end users. Yet, I must address the estimates because they’re such a topic of conversation. As such, USDA projects corn acreage at 92.0 million this year, down from 93.4 million last year, with soybean acreage rising to 88.0 million up from 87.2 million last year. I currently have corn acreage at 91.5 million, with soybeans at 90.0 million. What few corn acres we do lose will largely be from the fringes of the Midwest, with most Midwest farmers sticking to their normal crop rotations.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.