Perspective: Morning Commentary for February 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 06 Feb 2025, 14:11

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

February 6 – The Dow Jones Industrials have put in two straight solid session gains to move back within shouting distance of all-time highs, with futures pointing higher again this morning as tariff concerns subside and economic data and earnings releases continue to paint a positive picture. Ten-year treasury yields ticked higher from 4.42% to 4.44% this morning, with gold and bitcoin steady; WTI crude oil is regaining around a half a dollar with the USD bouncing a bit as well, while the VIX remains quite low around the 16-point level.

Initial applications for U.S. unemployment benefits picked up on the most recent reporting week ending February 1, to 219,000 – that was above the average 213k trade expectation, and above 208k the week prior (which itself was revised a tick higher week-over-week. Continuing claims for the week ending 1/25 also edged out estimates at 1.886 million, up from the average 1.870 mln guess and 1.850 mln in the week prior (that one was revised down from 1.858 mln previously). Jobless claims remain roughly in line with pre-COVID levels, and along with this week’s private employment data, jive with Fed Chair Powell’s comments last week that the labor market is “pretty stable”. Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data is on the way from the government tomorrow for the month of January; payrolls are seen dropping from 256k in December to a four-month low at 170k in January.

China officially filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization yesterday over President Trump’s 10% tariffs, calling them “protectionist” actions that break WTO rules; that’s only the formal start of a dispute process that is ultimately unlikely to bring China any relief, with no final decision still noted in a similar 2020 case over Trump’s trade rules due to an ineffective WTO appellate chamber. The more important part of the tiff would be a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, though there has still been no call scheduled yet between the two; Trump seems more than willing to let these initial tariffs simmer from an overall position of strength, even after China responded with targeted tariffs, sanctions, and investigations.

The Mexican Government yesterday officially reversed its stance on banning genetically modified corn imports, after losing a ruling at the end of last year via the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement; they had prohibited GMO corn imports since a decree in February 2023, but this will pave the way for its consumption. Mexico yesterday made their largest daily flash sale of new-crop (2025/26) U.S. corn since mid-October at 333k tonnes (just over 13 million bushels), with cumulative NC sales nearing 1.2 MMT (47 mbu) – the great majority of all new-crop sales on the books to this point. Mexico was also the leading destination of old-crop (2024/25) corn export sales this week at almost 10 mbu, and they continue to lead the way since the start of the marketing year on September 1 at 647 mbu, up from last year’s 623 mbu pace – in the driver’s seat so far of a stronger-than-expected ‘24/25 export program.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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