Perspective: Morning Commentary for January 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 10 Jan 2023, 14:25

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 10 – Stock futures turned lower overnight, following through on a reversal on Monday when the pendulum of market emotions swung from optimism to worry about rising interest rates once again. The VIX is trading near 22 this morning, reflecting slightly higher anxiety on Wall Street. The dollar index is notably higher, trading near 103.2, after falling to a fresh seven-month low on Monday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.59%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.25%. Crude oil prices are still hanging onto modest gains in early trade, while the grain and oilseed markets came under pressure overnight.

It didn’t take long for the excitement of Friday to turn into rate hike worries again on Monday. Traders focused on a single data point in Friday’s monthly jobs report suggesting that we might be seeing an easing of wage inflation, but that sense of optimism evaporated on Monday after two members of the Federal Reserve sobered up the market with comments refocusing the trade on this Thursday’s inflation data. They stated that Thursday’s consumer price index data will provide them better perspective on whether an easing of hawkish monetary policy is justified. The market will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments this morning as he participates in a panel discussion. His comments might reassure Wall Street traders once again, or perhaps add to their rate hike fears. His initial comments seemed to reassure the trade. All of this shows how obsessed Wall Street has become with monetary policy. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke started this obsession when he moved the central bank toward greater transparency – a move that seemed noble indeed. Yet, the unintended consequence of this move toward transparency has become a single-minded focus on parsing every word coming from members of the Federal Open Market Committee. That focus to a great extent has displaced the market’s previous focus on a myriad of fundamental data points, increasing the volatility of the markets along with the emotional swings.

No ships left Ukraine ports on Monday, but that was largely due to adverse weather in the region. Shippers are still finding ways to get the insurance coverage they need to continue to move grain, albeit at higher costs. Russia continues to slow-walk inspections of ships – both prior to entering Ukraine waters, as well as after departing Ukraine ports before they head to their destinations as required by the grain initiative. As such, exports continue to flow out of Ukraine’s three approved ports, but at a limited capacity and at a higher cost. These exports provide much-needed revenue for the farm sector planning for its 2023 crop production cycle. Reduced revenues limit their ability to purchase crop inputs, leading many of them to rethink their crop mix for the coming growing season. Oilseed crops have a lower yield, but they generally also have lower input requirements, and their marketable value is much higher, especially on the export market. So, one of the unintended consequences of the war is to shift Ukraine from a largely wheat-producing nation that was also rapidly increasing corn output toward more of an oilseed producer, focusing largely on winter rapeseed, sunflowers, and soybeans. Wheat will continue to be grown in Ukraine, but it will play a smaller role in Ukraine agriculture as oilseeds grow in significance.

Exporters shipped 40.9 million bushels of U.S. soybeans to China in the week ending January 5. Shipments are trending lower as the availability of new-crop Brazilian supplies nears. China has already switched its purchases to new-crop Brazilian supplies, which will gradually become the dominant source of shipments as those supplies increase at Brazilian ports in the weeks ahead. Chinese buyers bought 21 cargoes of soybeans in the past week, as they extended coverage ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday that goes from January 21 to 27. Just one of those cargoes was purchased from the United States for immediate January shipment. Nineteen of the 21 cargoes were purchased from Brazil for February and March shipment and the remaining cargo was purchased from Brazil for June shipment. U.S. domestic soybean demand remains solid, but export demand is seasonally declining.

USDA will release its January set of crop reports on Thursday at 11 a.m. Chicago time. These January reports contain more data than any other release throughout the year, leaving the most opportunity for potential surprises. Look for USDA to modestly reduce Argentine corn and soybean production estimates on Thursday, with more significant cuts likely coming in February and March when confidence in lost production potential is greater. We could also see minor downward tweaks to Brazil’s production estimates, but nothing significant. Their crops still look big overall at this time. U.S. corn exports could see another significant cut, but feed usage may increase to offset some of that loss. I do not expect to see significant changes to the U.S. soybean balance sheet this month.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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