Perspective: Morning Commentary for January 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 13 Jan 2022, 14:36

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 13 – Stock futures posted modest gains this morning, following data showing high inflation at the producer level combined with increased jobless claims as Omicron numbers surge. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning as Wall Street trusts the Fed to do the “right thing.” The dollar index fell to 94.7, posing a fresh two-month low. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell as more money shifted into the sector, trading near 1.73% this morning. Crude oil prices are modestly higher, while the Ags were mostly lower in overnight trading.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 230K in the week ending January 8^th, up from 207K the previous week and well-above analyst expectations of 205K. This increased the four-week moving average to 210.75K claims. Continuing claims, which are delayed a week, fell 194K to 1.559 million in the week ending January 1^st, which is the lowest level for continuing claims since June 2, 1973. So, first-time claims increased as we turned to the new calendar year as Omicron numbers rapidly rose, but the overall jobs market is very tight, which may force action from the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy.

The producer price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in December, which was half the 0.4% rate expected by analysts. The November number was revised to 1.0% month-on-month growth, up from the previously reported 0.8% gains. As such, the PPI was up 9.7% year-on-year in December, with the November number revised upward by 0.2 points to 9.8%, which matches what analysts thought would be the December number. However, the core PPI that excludes food and energy prices rose 0.5% in December, matching analyst expectations, but down from 0.9% growth in November. The core PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year in December, up from 7.7% in November and above analyst expectations of 8.0%. So why the difference? Energy prices were down 3.3% year-on-year in December, while food prices were down 0.6%. Yet, much of the rest of the goods and services continued to see inflationary pressures.

The year-on-year inflation numbers hit you in the face at 40-year highs, but Wall Street is choosing this morning to look at the declining month-on-month numbers, saying that inflation has peaked. Traders see the tight jobs market and the high inflation numbers and feel that the Fed is now onboard with a plan to address both. The Fed is saying all the right things currently about inflation being a priority, including recent comments made by Fed members in the middle of this Omicron outbreak. They say they will deal with it appropriately. It’s yet to be seen if they know how to deal with it appropriately, because the Fed helped create an unprecedented situation. Yes, inflation was even higher 40 years ago, but for different reasons. One of the key questions for the economy, and for the commodity markets, in 2022 focuses on whether the Fed will find the “magic sauce” for appropriately normalizing monetary policy, and whether fiscal policy will cooperate as well.

The Centers for Disease Control reported 797K new Covid cases on Tuesday, down from an adjusted 1.352 million cases on Monday, although that count appeared to include some weekend numbers. The seven-day moving average rose to 762K. Hospitalization numbers are rising due to the sheer numbers of Covid cases, with deaths starting to turn higher as well. Yet, FlightAware reports that “just” 363 U.S. flights have been cancelled so far this morning, with just 453 delays, both numbers down sharply over the past week. Yet, the problems continue to increase for China, where Omicron is complicating China’s efforts to maintain a zero-tolerance policy. It has its own internal problems containing Omicron, but that’s also being complicated by a record number of cases arriving on flights from overseas. China suspended more U.S. flights, with some reports indicating that they will be totally shut off on January 18^th through the end of the month, ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday.

USDA’s January set of crop reports was relatively uneventful for the most part. The most significant market-moving surprise focused on the winter wheat seedings report that found more planted soft red winter wheat acres than expected. That triggered more selling in the winter wheat markets, which were already struggling under bearish chart signals. Look for the wheat markets to largely ignore rapidly declining U.S. winter wheat ratings until we get closer to spring when the crop comes out of dormancy. The corn and soybean markets are focused now on South American weather, which shows some signs of improvement, but the rains will not solve the problems. Weekly export shipments will also increasingly become the focus, especially for soybeans.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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