Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 03 Jul 2023, 13:18

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

July 3 - Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the holiday-shortened week, with many in the trade extending their weekend today ahead of tomorrow's market closure for U.S. Independence Day. The VIX looks to start the day below the 14 level as Wall Street continues its relative sense of calm. The dollar is looking to start the week on a positive note after falling sharply on Friday, trading around the 102.7 level at the time of writing. Treasuries are narrowly in the green, with 10-year yields trading near 3.83% while 2-year yields hang around 4.91%. Crude oil is rallying off of this morning's announcements while the ags are starting the week mostly in the green as well.

The world's top two oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, both announced that they will be extending cuts to their output, sending crude prices higher to start the week. On top of the existing OPEC+ curbs, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut their production targets for July by one million barrels per day in an attempt to boost prices. The country announced today that they would be extending these cuts into August as well and left open the option for extending them even further. Russia is joining in on the supply reduction effort, today saying they will cut their own oil exports by 500K barrels per day in August, aiming to reduce their production by the same amount. Contrary to expectations coming into the year, crude oil markets have struggled to rebound as a worse than expected economic recovery in China and lingering global recession fears have hampered demand. The countries' move to curtail supply in hopes of raising prices may bring them some short-term benefit, but looks to add more complexity to the world's attempt at economic recovery in an already clouded second half of 2023.

Soybean futures are continuing their surge higher on the back of Friday's shockingly low 83.505 million planted acre estimate from the USDA, with the November contract jumping well over $1.00/bushel since the report's release. Coming in 4 million acres lower than the USDA's March 31st estimate despite expectations of an increase of around 600K, Friday's report caught the market very much off guard. If USDA's estimate is accurate, the margin of error for U.S. soybean yields shrinks significantly and places even more importance on a shift in the weather pattern for the Midwest in the near future.

Changes from USDA's June 30 acreage estimates to their final numbers happen more often than not, as can be seen in the below graphic. However, those changes are typically to the downside, with corn acres over the last 15 years on average falling 645K and soybean acres falling 656K. While the unexpectedly large 94.096 million corn acres certainly have plenty of room for reductions, soybean acres do not. On Friday's report, the USDA stated that there were 2.49 million acres of corn and 8.22 million acres of soybeans left to be planted at the time the survey was conducted. As such, there is certainly room for significant change. The last time we saw an increase in soybean acres from the June 30th report to final was back in 2017, which also saw a reduction in corn acres over the span. A dry June should have aided the planting of those remaining acres, and the sharp rally in soybean prices following Friday's report may incentivize more double-crop plantings behind wheat. There will certainly be considerable debate over the actual acreage numbers in the months ahead and their resulting impacts on U.S. balance sheets, but for now the market has no choice but to trade USDA's numbers.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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