Daily Basis Report 6-11
Daily Basis Report - Corn, Bean, Wheat, Meal Basis values around the Midwest
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 11
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Today's Perspective Video: Ideal Weather, Weak Prices, and a Key WASDE Report Ahead
June 11 – Iran-related headlines are again moving the markets this morning, along with more inflation related data that was released. Stock futures are mostly higher to start the day, while the VIX is also elevated to trade near 21. The dollar index is trading near 100.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14% as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten on rising inflation concerns. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $93 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mixed to lower overnight.
The headline producer price index rose 1.1% month-on-month in May, exceeding analyst expectations of a 0.7% increase. The April number was revised to also show 1.1% gains, down from the 1.4% originally reported. The headline PPI rose 6.5% year-on-year in May, exceeding analyst expectations of 6.4%. The April number was revised to 5.7%, down from the 6.0% originally reported. The core PPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose 0.4% on the month in May, matching expectations, while the April number was revised down to 0.7% growth, down from the 1.0% originally reported. The core PPI rose 4.9% year-on-year in May, falling short of analyst expectations of 5.4%. April’s core PPI was revised to 4.9%, down from the 5.2% originally reported. The PPI for goods rose 2.8% on the month in May, and 10.4% on the year. The PPI for services rose 0.3% on the month and 4.9% on the year. This data has similar tendencies to yesterday’s consumer inflation data. The headline numbers are hot, but generally near expectations, while the core numbers came in at or below expectations, but are still hot. As such, Treasury yields popped on the data release, as this provides more evidence of lingering inflation issues.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 229K in the week ending week ending June 6, up from 225K the previous week, and up from analyst expectations of 215. This raised the four-week moving average to a still low 219K, up from 214.75K the previous week. Continuous claims jumped 24K to 1.795 million in the week ending May 30. This raised the four-week moving average by 4,750 to 1.780 million. These numbers are still at relatively low levels, but they are trending slowly higher despite recent good economic data, including good jobs numbers.
President Trump posted a warning for Iran on social media this morning stating that the United States will be hitting Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT.” He went on to say, “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America.” This post suggests that we may be on the cusp of a significant military escalation with Iran. However, I also note that President Trump has typically used the element of surprise to his advantage on previous major military strikes, including last June’s hit on Iran, the February 28th strike that took out its leadership, as well as the hit on Venezuela. Why would he announce military plans unless there was another motive? I would suggest that he perceives – whether right or wrong – that negotiations are at a point that he feels he can push the Revolutionary Guard into a peace agreement with the threat that they’re about to lose their oil revenue permanently. Personally, I question whether Iran’s Revolutionary Guard would ever voluntarily lay down its arms, so I’m not sure that the threat will work. In that case, Trump would need to follow through with is threat, which would necessitate troops on the ground, and the enemy knows that we’re coming. I have no doubt that Trump and the military is ready and willing to put troops on the ground on Kharg Island, but that will also prove to be another political test for America’s support for the war should it occur. Or this also might be a ploy to get Iran to move assets away from where we’ll really strike.
The European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 2.25% this morning. It was the ECB’s first hike since September 2023. The ECB stated that the war in Iran was creating inflationary pressures that necessitated the rate hike. The hike was widely expected, but it also puts pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to do the same later this year, especially in light of this week’s inflation data. The market is pricing in expectations of a Fed rate hike by October currently.
A relatively quiet USDA WASDE crop report is expected later today, with no changes to U.S. corn and soybean production estimates. We might see an increase in corn exports partially offset with a cut in ethanol corn use. We’ll likely see little change to the domestic soybean balance sheet, although more adjustments could be made to South America’s corn and soybean production estimates. China has purchased an estimated 95% of its soybean needs for the current marketing year, leaving just 5 million metric tons of additional purchases, with no indication that any of that will originate from the States. It has already purchased 9 mmt plus of its 2026-27 needs from Brazil.
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 11
June 11 – Iran-related headlines are again moving the markets this morning, along with more inflation related data that was released. Stock futures are mostly higher to start the day, while the VIX is also elevated to trade near 21. The dollar index is trading near 100.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14% as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten on rising inflation concerns. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $93 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mixed to lower overnight.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
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