Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 27

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 27 Jun 2022, 12:55

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Matt Zeller

Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

June 27 – The Dow Jones Industrials picked up steam into the end of last week and look to extend that rebound this morning, despite overall concerns remaining on rising inflation and interest rates, recession risk, and continued geopolitical problems. Even with some momentum as of late, Wall Street is almost ready to put a bow on its worst first half of the year in multiple decades. Portfolio rebalancing is likely to provide a boost for that very reason this week, as investors end the month, quarter, and half…

Durable goods orders showed a strong 0.7% increase for the month of May, up from 0.4% in April (revised a tick lower) and well above trade expectations for just a 0.1% gain. That forecast was range was varied at -1.3% to +1.8%, however. New orders excluding transportation and defense supplies rose 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, following 0.2% gains for each the previous month. “Durable goods orders” are those placed with U.S. factories for items meant to last at least three years, and continued investment there is a solid sign in the face of rising inflation and interest rates, and concerns about the ultimate fate of the U.S. economy. Pending Home Sales are up later this morning and that could be the riskier economic reading today, based on some shaky housing market numbers as of late. Sales for May are seen falling 4.0% from April, basically even to April’s decline.

WTI crude oil recovered into the end of the week last week and is favoring the high side again this morning; just like the grain markets, oil traders are waiting for news on Thursday when OPEC+ meets and discusses sticking to their plan for accelerated crude production. In the meantime, G7 leaders are gathering the Bavarian Alps to mostly discuss policies in sanctions against Russia; Ukrainian President Zelenskyy joined the meeting virtually today and world leaders pledged support. The U.S. is mulling over a price cap on Russian oil and will send new weapons and missile defense systems to Ukraine, though Russian missiles continued to hit Kyiv as the G7 summit went on.

The grain markets started off weak last night but have recovered since, with the exception of corn which is being weighed down by excellent weekend rains in the heart of the corn belt northward. Chances look lighter this week with temps moving back higher going forward, but those key 6-10 day forecasts continue to run wet at this point, keeping that carrot hanging out there for the bears into early July. On the fundamental side, the trade will look forward to the June 30^th USDA acreage and stocks reports on Thursday morning, a set of reports that often provides some fireworks to the market ahead of the long holiday weekend. A bullish report across the board sent the markets skyrocketing last year when acreage gains failed to materialize; little change is expected this year with around half a million acres seen shifting from soybeans to corn. The Midwest planting season was slow to start but better late conditions and massive price incentives were seen driving farmers to plant corn until the very last day. It would still be the lowest June corn acreage figure since 2018, and the highest soybean acreage on record (for either the June acreage report or an overall final number, if realized).

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
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Sugar
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

Grains & Oilseeds

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