Daily Basis Report 6-8
Daily Basis Report - Corn, Bean, Wheat, Meal Basis values around the Midwest
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 8
By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
Guest Commentary by Mike Castle
Senior Commodities Economist
June 8 – Stocks are looking to rebound to start the week after an ugly Friday selloff centered most heavily in the tech sector, with the Nasdaq seeing its largest ever one-day point decline and sharpest percentage loss since April of last year. Nerves appear to be calming on Wall Street as well, with the VIX down over 13% on the day, hovering near 18.7 after spiking to its high since April at 21.57 on Friday. The dollar has fallen back below 100 after closing above it for the first time in two months on Friday, trading at 99.85 at the time of writing. Treasuries are starting the week slightly in the red as well, with 10-year yields trading near 4.52% and 2-year yields trading near 4.13%. The ags are quietly mixed at the break, with soybeans selling off rather sharply in the overnights before bouncing back to hang more narrowly in the red at present, while the protein wheats are clinging to small gains.
Israel and Iran carried out direct strikes on one another for the first time since the April ceasefire went into effect, raising concerns of wider escalation over the weekend and sending crude oil prices surging higher in the overnight session. Cooler heads appear to be prevailing to start the week as Iran’s military announced today that its response was now over, not long after President Trump’s statement that the two sides “must immediately stop shooting.” Crude oil prices have since cooled, though still in the green to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 1% to trade near $91.10 and nearby Brent up 1.8% to trade near $94.70. Fighting in Lebanon over the weekend triggered the resumption in direct Israeli/Iranian strikes, despite the fresh “ceasefire” between Israel and Hezbollah announced mid-to-late last week. The two sides carried out strikes on one another in the days following, but the resumption of Israeli attacks on the Beirut area ultimately led to the Iranian ballistic missile launches toward Israel and the subsequent Israeli response on Iran.
It’s worth keeping an eye on Yemen as well, with the Iranian-aligned Houthis putting out a statement today that they would “declare a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation,” while also launching fresh missile attacks at Israel themselves, though they were reportedly intercepted by Israeli air defenses. With global commodity trade already facing notable logistical snares due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a resumption in Houthi attacks in the Red Sea would add yet another layer of complexity. We’ve seen this before in recent years, with many ships being forced to avoid the region entirely during the peak disruption in 2024, instead re-routing around Africa, resulting in increased shipping costs and times. It’s also worth keeping in mind that, while the Houthis alleged these attacks were targeting their enemies, they ended up being rather indiscriminate, resulting in more widespread disruption than likely intended. This is a risk markets will be keeping in mind as developments unfold in the week ahead.
UAE’s state-owned oil company, ADNOC, reportedly awarded a total of 14+ million barrels of crude oil originating from inside the Gulf in their first tenders for the grades included since the war began. Whether or not this is an indication of confidence from the UAE that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in the near future (tender loading dates were reportedly June – August) or simply confidence in their ability to bypass the Strait is unknown, but the market appears to be taking this news as another stabilizing factor, keeping a lid on oil price gains.
It was another wet weekend for much of the Midwest, with the heaviest totals centered in northern Missouri/southern Iowa, but wide stretches of the Corn Belt seeing another inch or more. These rains came with some welcomed heat units as well, making much of the region feel like a greenhouse and providing a serious boost to developing corn and soybean crops. We’ll get a fresh update on the condition of U.S. crops after the close today with USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report due out at 3:00 PM Central Time. Initial corn, soybean, and spring wheat ratings last week all came in notably below their respective expectations, so it will be interesting to see what kind of rebound, if any, we see in this afternoon’s report.
Recent beneficial rains, and more in the forecast, have triggered an extremely sharp selloff among speculative traders, with managed money shedding over 90k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (6/2), per Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report. Estimates have the funds shedding much more of this net length in the days that followed, bringing managed money much closer to net flat to start this week. With open interest trending higher over this stretch, it’s likely not just existing long liquidation either, we could also be seeing notable increases in new speculative shorts, something worth keeping an eye on as we progress through the growing season.
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 8
June 8 – Stocks are looking to rebound to start the week after an ugly Friday selloff centered most heavily in the tech sector, with the Nasdaq seeing its largest ever one-day point decline and sharpest percentage loss since April of last year. Nerves appear to be calming on Wall Street as well, with the VIX down over 13% on the day, hovering near 18.7 after spiking to its high since April at 21.57 on Friday. The dollar has fallen back below 100 after closing above it for the first time in two months on Friday, trading at 99.85 at the time of writing. Treasuries are starting the week slightly in the red as well, with 10-year yields trading near 4.52% and 2-year yields trading near 4.13%. The ags are quietly mixed at the break, with soybeans selling off rather sharply in the overnights before bouncing back to hang more narrowly in the red at present, while the protein wheats are clinging to small gains.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Daily Momentum Report 6-8
The Study of the Flow of Money. A fast-moving momentum indicator that shows day over day change in momentum all while holding the oversold, overbought quality of an RSI.
Grains Market Intelligence Team - USA
- Grains & Oilseeds
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