Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 16 Mar 2023, 13:43

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 16 – Stock futures were again under pressure this morning as traders worry about the potential contagion from the known bank failures to this point, as many questions remain over the health of western banks. The VIX is trading near 27 at this hour, reflecting elevated fear levels on Wall Street that tends to make traders wary of building ownership in the so-called riskier assets. The dollar is trading weaker this morning near 104.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.42, after holding above yesterday’s five-week lows. Yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.90%, after making six-month lows on Wednesday. Crude oil prices are nearly 2% lower this morning, while grain and oilseed prices are mostly lower as well as traders remain wary of taking on risk.

The Swiss National Bank gave a lifeline to Credit Suisse today by extending a loan of up to $54 billion to the troubled bank, who’s problems go beyond the recent rise in interest rates. Reuters reports that the move came after Swiss authorities provided assurance that the bank met “the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks.” The loan buys time for the bank to carry out its restructuring plan. Some analysts now speculate that the easing of concerns surrounding Credit Suisse will allow the European Central Bank to proceed with planned rate hikes, although there are also reports that the ECB informed European Union leadership that other European banks currently remain vulnerable.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to testify before the Senate Finance Committee today that the U.S. banking system “remains sound.” Released remarks she prepared for the scheduled budget hearing say that “decisive and forceful” actions taken this week to shore up public confidence in the banking system underscore its resolve to protect depositors. Her remarks state, “I can reassure the members of the committee that our banking system remains sound, and that Americans can feel confident that their deposits will be there when they need them.” That makes all of us feel better, because we all worry about losing the money we’ve worked hard to accumulate. As such, most Americans took comfort from reports that all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank would be backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, whether they were insured or not. But is that what is really best long-term? If all deposits are backed by the government, what prevents unethical managers from being irresponsible in managing the bank by directing funds into risky strategies or perhaps channeling funds into unscrupulous directions, knowing the government will replace the funds? This is a slippery slope. It’s one thing to guarantee properly insured deposits. It’s another to guarantee all deposits.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 192K in the week ending March 11, down from 212K the previous week, and below analyst expectations of 205K. This dropped the four-week moving average to 196.5K claims, down from 197.25K the previous week, keeping the moving average below 200K. Continuing claims for the week ending March 4 fell by 29K to 1.684 million, with the four-week moving average at 1.676 million. This week’s report again re-emphasizes the tightness of the U.S. jobs market, suggesting that wage inflation will continue to be a major problem continuing to support overall inflation, and a pause in the rate hikes – even though the Fed may deem it necessary to support the banks – risks making that inflation problem worse.

Housing starts jumped to an annualized rate of 1.450 million in February, up from analyst expectations of 1.315 million. Furthermore, the January numbers were revised to 1.321 million, up from 1.309 originally. Permits for new housing starts surged to an annualized rate of 1.524 million, up from 1.339 million in January and above analyst expectations of 1.340 million. This too suggests that the Fed needs to stay the course with its monetary tightening, even though the bank problems may make it difficult to do so.

USDA confirmed another sale of 25.2 million bushels of U.S. corn to China this morning, bringing this week’s total to more than 75 million bushels. These sales are expected to show up in next Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report. The sales are all for current-year delivery as China has to dramatically pull back on the scope of surplus rice stocks that it makes available to livestock feeders this year. The fresh demand also draws more attention to the shrinking supply of Argentine corn, with some private production estimates now dropping into the low 30s million metric tons, amid planting delays that increase risks for Brazil’s safrinha corn crop. Meanwhile, negotiations continue over the extension of the Ukraine export initiative, with the current agreement expiring this weekend. The agreement is expected to be extended for at least 60 days, but significant tensions remain that increase the risks that we could see interruptions in commodity movement out of the region. Those tensions increased this week when a Russian military jet downed a U.S. drone over international waters in the Black Sea, and as Russia now rushes to seek to recover the drone. All of these factors simply confirm that commodity risks in the Black Sea Region are rising rather than declining.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
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Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
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Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
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Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

Grains & Oilseeds

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