Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 20 Mar 2023, 13:18

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 20 – Lingering uneasiness over bank solvency and this week’s Federal Reserve meeting worried traders overnight as Wall Street remains in an overall “risk-off” mode. Banking stocks largely led the way lower in overnight trade on fears of a broader contagion risk within the sector. The VIX is currently trading near 26, after trading near 29 earlier in the session. The dollar index is trading near 103.4, or a six-month low. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.42%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.82% as the inverse continues to collapse. Wall Street’s “risk-off” headwinds pushed commodity buyers to the sidelines thus far this morning, with crude oil prices making new 15-month lows near $64, before erasing some of their losses, while grain and oilseed prices are mostly lower as well.

Swiss regulators engineered a deal Sunday that saw UBS Group pay $3.23 billion for Credit Suisse Group, while also assuming up to $5.4 billion in losses. They thought that the move would stabilize the industry, but instead it created more worries about the health of the Swiss banking system, and the global banking system beyond that. U.S. Treasury yields plummeted to fresh six-month lows overnight in a rush to safety, although they’ve bounced somewhat this morning as the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank announced that they will enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements. The central banks agreed to increase the frequency of 7-day maturity operations from weekly to daily starting today, according to market reports. These steps are being taken to increase investor confidence about liquidity in the system. The risks within the banking sector may be real, but the greater risk currently is the emotion of fear, that can sometimes do far more damage than the facts themselves. That’s why it is essential that policymakers bring calm to the marketplace sooner rather than later, and a piece of that puzzle involves this week’s Fed policy statement.

Wall Street wants the Fed rate hikes to stop, and to even pivot into cuts. The business networks continue to feature “experts” speaking to the expectation that the Fed has no choice but to pivot its monetary policy in the next few months. Keep in mind that easy monetary policy is the drug of choice for the markets, which feed on stimulus money flows from both fiscal and monetary policy. Hitting its 2% mandated inflation rate necessitates that the Fed remain hawkish, but a pivot right now would tell us that the Fed sees enough problems within the banking sector that it must first pull-back to save that sector. As such, Wall Street wants a pivot, but a pivot may also communicate panic on the Fed’s part that still results in a sell-off. The Fed has no-doubt been actively assessing the health of the regional banking system over the past week. We don’t know what it learned. The European Central Bank’s decision to proceed with its planned rate hike last week seemed to instill confidence in the market at the time. Only the Fed knows whether it can afford to take a similar step. If so, that doesn’t mean that our problems are over. Rising rates create credit risks for banks, corporations and for emerging countries with large amounts of dollar-denominated debt. It will take considerable time to work through the risks.

The Ukraine grain initiative was officially extended for another 120 days over the weekend, despite the objections of Russia. That should ease some concerns of grain traders, although most anticipated that grain would continue to flow. They just knew that they would sleep better if it were official. This week’s focus on the Ukraine war shifts largely to Moscow, where China’s President Xi Jinping will be the guest of Russia’s President Putin. Several bilateral agreements are expected to be signed while Xi Jinping is in Moscow, strengthening the tie between the two leaders. It’s interesting to note that China’s official state mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, stated yesterday that “the more volatile the world is, the more steadily China-Russia relations should move forward,” bringing China-Russian relations “to the highest point” in history. There is no question that China and Russia see themselves as partners in their battle with the United States and the West, and that they are prepared to set aside their differences for the common goal of coming out on top above the United States. That will translate into trade, economic partnerships, and military decisions. One piece of evidence of the trade side of it is the fact that China’s crude oil imports from Russia were up nearly 24% year-on-year in the first two months of this calendar year, according to this morning’s China Direct, published by our Shanghai office.

Corn is another commodity that China is increasingly seeking to acquire, with its own stocks believed to be relatively low after the last several years. However, Russia doesn’t have much corn to offer, Ukraine’s ability to provide corn is in decline, Argentina may only have about 60% of a normal crop, and Brazil’s exportable safrinha corn crop is getting planted late, increasing risks that it will be short. As such, China continues to step up purchases of the crop at what it currently deems to be “cheap” prices. Chinese corn imports in the first two months of this year totaled a record 5.33 million metric tons, which is 11% higher than 2021 when it imported a record 28.4 mmt. USDA reported Chinese purchases of roughly 2.1 mmt of U.S. corn in the past week, while it is also believed that China bought more than 1.5 mmt of Brazil’s safrinha crop thus far.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-6

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 06 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.