Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 24 Mar 2022, 13:29

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 24 – Stock futures posted modest gains overnight as NATO leaders hold an emergency meeting on the one-month anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet, that modest strength comes at the expense of the commodity sector, which saw light selling overnight. The VIX is trading just above 23 this morning, reflecting easing fears on Wall Street as the war rages on in Ukraine. The dollar index is trading near 98.9, with yields on 10-year Treasuries firming to trade near 2.38%, which is just below yesterday’s 34-month high near 2.42%. Crude oil prices are posting modest losses after posting fresh two-week highs overnight, while the Ags are modestly lower as well.

It's been one month since Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Russia expected to sweep across Ukraine in a few days, but it currently occupies a relatively small percentage of the country. Unfortunately, its bombing campaign stretches across much of the country, and it has gained control of most of its ports. That bombing campaign has not broken the spirit of the Ukrainian people, but it has struck at the heart of the country’s infrastructure and economy. The war continues to be financed by Russian energy sales, but too many countries are too dependent on that crude oil and natural gas to make that break, which continues to support the lingering war. Look for NATO to impose more sanctions in today’s meeting, as it tries to tighten the noose on Russia’s economy, while ramping up pressure on Putin from within his leadership circle. NATO will also take steps to bolster its own military defense to discourage Russia from advancing into any of its member countries, while also sending more military aid to Ukraine to help it to defend itself. So, the war rages on within Ukraine, along with the adverse impacts of that war on commodity production, while the rest of the world takes steps to prevent it from spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders.

The debate continues to revolve around the scope of crop planting, production and harvesting that will be accomplished in Ukraine this year, since that country has become such a vital food producer in the world in recent years. Ukraine’s deputy minister of Agricultural Policy and Food provided an optimistic outlook today, stating that his country’s farmers are ready and prepared to plant this year’s crops. In fact, he stated that the spring planting campaign has already begun on 2% of Ukraine’s acreage as weather turns more favorable. He stated that farmers have begun to plant spring wheat and oats, and that they will soon be planting vegetables. While admitting that some fields have been mined, he states that these are largely not critical for crop production. Other local analysts have been less optimistic, while we remain pessimistic overall regarding Ukraine’s ability to harvest enough to see notable exports over the next 12 to 18 months. One local analyst stated that 35% of the arable ground will be unavailable for planting this year due to Russian occupation, land mines, etc. Other local estimates place planted acreage at 50% of typical levels, while we believe that is an optimistic number if the war rages on a few more weeks. The Ukrainian people have a “can do” attitude. They’ve proven that. But resources will be severely restricted, and many obstacles will need to be overcome. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m trying to be realistic.

Durable goods orders fell 2.2% month-on-month in February, down from 1.6% gains in January and below expectations that orders would fall by 0.5%. Much of the disappointment came from the transportation sector. Durable goods orders minus transportation fell by 0.6% month-on-month in February, down from 0.8% gains in January and below analyst expectations of 0.5% gains. Core capital goods orders that provide a reflection of expansion in the business sector fell by 0.3% month-on-month in February, down from 1.3% gains the previous month and below analyst expectations of 0.4%. The above month-on-month numbers were made worse by upward revisions in the January numbers. Other data today showed that first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 187K in the week ending March 19, down from 215K the previous week and below analyst expectations of 210K. Last week’s numbers were the lowest since September 1969 when they were at 182K. Continuing claims fell to 1.350 million, which is the lowest since January 1970. The jobs sector is extremely tight, leading to wage inflation.

USDA’s daily flash export sales report today included another 11.7 million bushels of current year soybeans sold to “unknown destinations.” The trade will assume that is more business with China. U.S. soybeans remain quite competitive with Brazilian supplies, but primarily in the June and beyond window. Brazil will continue to ship soybeans ahead of the U.S. harvest six months from now, but we expect U.S. shipments to increasingly make up a larger share of shipments to China and elsewhere as we move through the summer, boosting our exports while shrinking our ending stocks projections, while also increasing the need to expand acreage of the 2022 crop.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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