Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 04 May 2026, 13:46

May 4 – Headlines out of the Middle East are again shaping the market outlook as we head into day #66 of the conflict with Iran. The VIX Is elevated this morning as a result, but it is still “only” trading near 18 as things heat up again in the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar index is trading near 98.3 this morning, after spending the bulk of the past year trading between 97 and 100. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.41%, as they continue to trend higher, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.93%. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $102 this morning, while Brent crude oil trades near $111 per barrel. The soybean complex is firmer again this morning, while corn and wheat prices post modest losses.

President Trump posted on social media Sunday that the United States would start guiding civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz who have been trapped in the Persian Gulf for the past couple of months during the war with Iran. That effort to free those trapped ships was to begin today. Iran reports that it sent a missile in the direction of a U.S. warship approaching the Strait of Hormuz as a warning shot, indicating that it hit the warship, which the United States denies. Private shippers indicated that they were reluctant to risk passage out of the Persian Sea by way of the Strait of Hormuz, due to the danger presented by Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then went on TV this morning, stating that the United States is opening up the Strait, that we have absolute control of the Strait, and that the Iranians do not have control of the Strait. So, what is the truth?

The “Fog of War” is once again at work here, when both sides try to control the narrative – both for the consuming public as well as the positioning against the other side. Both sides want to project an image of power to their stakeholders, but both also want to keep the other side guessing. Iran’s navy is not a threat to shipping through the Strait, but it still has an unknown number of missiles and drones that can be fired from multiple locations, including the threat of hypersonic missiles that it claims to have, but nobody knows for sure. The question is, what does the U.S. Navy know now that it didn’t know a month ago that gives it the confidence to now boldly claim it can safely guide ships through the Strait? Making such a claim is a high-risk strategy unless you know that you can deliver. That will be the ultimate test – whether the United States can deliver on this promise. If so, it establishes itself as the power in control in the region that can finally release the world from being held as an economic hostage by Iran. If not, it reinforces Iran’s ability to hold the world hostage by limiting the flow of energy and fertilizer supplies to the world. This is a big stakes move by the United States in which the next several days should tell us a lot.

The United States continues to be the region least impacted economically by the war with Iran. Yes, gas prices are up sharply, along with diesel and fertilizer prices. Airfare is rising as well due to high jet fuel prices. So, my comment is not that the United States is not impacted, but rather that much of the rest of the world is impacted to a much greater extent, and that will likely continue to be the case. That makes it tempting for global investors to put their money where the war is having the lessor impact – in the United States – which increases demand for dollars to participate in our markets. U.S. gas prices have risen by more than 40% on average since the war started, approaching a 50% rise. I’ve driven roughly 2,000 miles over the past couple of weeks, and I see no let up in the number of cars on the highways. In fact, the data would suggest that gasoline consumption has varied by just a percent or two since the war started, suggesting that it has had little effect thus far. Economic data over the past couple of weeks continues to show a resilient economy, with even the housing market showing signs of improvement, on top of strengthening demand for durable goods and an uptick in manufacturing. Gas prices went up by more than 30 cents per gallon last week, and they very well may have significant more upside potential, so we’ll need to see if that eventually slows consumer spending. But thus far, inflation adjusted energy prices suggest that we’ve experienced much higher prices in the past, which is why the economy is thus far handling it well, assisted by the near-record high M2 money supply currently at play.

Soybean oil prices continue to hit new highs for the move, driven by record demand as the nation’s biomass diesel production ramps up. That continues to support soybean prices as crushers lock in opportunities to crush at full capacity through the summer to meet the spiking demand for biofuel feedstock. November soybeans are on the cusp of a possible test of $12, while December corn continues to probe the psychological $5 mark. Both of these levels are tempting for farmers in both the U.S. and in South America, making it difficult to establish prices above the psychological barriers. That makes this week a good test. Failure at these levels could increase the selling, but the ability to establish the market above these levels could pave the way for the next level higher. Crude oil prices will also provide a signal of money flow sentiment, with headlines out of the Middle East providing direction.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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