Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 23 Nov 2022, 14:30

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 23 – Stock futures are drifting this morning, lacking clear direction ahead of the holiday break. The U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving Holiday break (therefore no market commentary), while opening for just a shortened trading session on Friday that is expected to see low participation. Traders will be taking a look at the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, which are scheduled to be released just before they head home for the holiday this afternoon. Those minutes are expected to provide greater insight into the internal debate within the Fed regarding maintaining the current pace of interest rate hikes. The VIX fell to its lowest level in more than three months overnight, trading below 22 this morning. That suggests that fear levels are currently relatively low on Wall Street. The dollar index is again lower this morning, near 106.8, adding to its losses after the release of this morning’s economic data. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.75%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.54%. This yield curve inversion remains very large this week on expectations of a recession next year. Crude oil prices are more than 3% lower as a result, whereas the grain and oilseed markets were mixed to lower as well, finishing the overnight session near their session lows with modest losses, although corn maintained very modest gains into the pause.

Durable goods orders rose 1.0% month-on-month in October, more than doubling the 0.4% gains expected by analysts and exceeding the 0.3% gains seen in September. Durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0.5% month-on-month, beating analyst expectations of 0.1% growth. The September number was revised to 0.9% losses month-on-month, versus the 0.5% losses originally reported. Core capital goods orders are seen as an indication of the health of the business outlook. Core capital goods orders rose 0.7% month-on-month, up from analyst expectations of 0.2% growth and better than the 0.8% contraction seen in September. This suggests that the general economy is showing greater resiliency than feared on Wall Street, which would argue for the Fed maintaining an aggressively hawkish monetary policy – at least that’s how Wall Street would interpret it.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 240K in the week ending November 19, up from analyst expectations of 225K, and above the 223K claims posted the previous week. This elevated the four-week moving average for claims to 226.75K claims, up from 221.25K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending November 12 rose 48K to 1.551 million, maintaining the longer-term trend of rising numbers for long-term unemployed. That’s still a relatively low number from a historical perspective, but it is trending higher. The Fed needs to see a higher unemployment rate to get wage inflation under control but doing that means getting job postings to drop dramatically. The above durable goods orders data suggests that employers will still be looking for new employees. As such, these two reports provide contradicting signals.

The first vessel carrying corn from Brazil to China is scheduled to depart today, marking the beginning of a new trade relationship between the two countries. Three more vessels are scheduled to depart for China yet before the end of the month, with another in early December. Both grain sorghum and barley imports into China are expected to decline by more than 6 million metric tons. That increases the feed deficit within China. Trade chatter within China suggests that roughly 15 cargoes of Brazilian corn have already been purchased, which would amount to 1 mmt of corn. Ukraine’s corn supplies are expected to remain limited and U.S. supplies expensive, opening the door for China to buy a significant amount of corn from Brazil. But, depending on the size of is production in the next marketing year cycle, that may displace other customers who come to the United States for supplies. Much of that is going to hinge on prospects for the size of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, that will be planted primarily in February.

USDA’s weekly export sales report will be delayed until Friday of this week due to the Thanksgiving Holiday break tomorrow, with the CFTC Commitment of Traders report delayed until Monday. Look for the markets to drift over the next couple of trading days in generally lighter trade volume, unless we see a headline that could create more erratic movement in this lower-volume environment. The trade will expect USDA to cut corn and soybean exports over the next couple of months, unless it sees a downturn in production prospects for Brazil, which still could happen. A couple of waves of intense heat are expected over Argentina over the next two weeks, aggravating drought concerns there, but the market doesn’t seem too concerned about that. The bigger question is, will Argentina initiate another “pesos for soybeans” program in December, like it did in September?

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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