Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 24 Nov 2021, 14:26

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 24 – Stocks face modest pressure on the last full trading day of the week, ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday break. The markets will be closed on Thursday for the holiday, with just a short trading day on Friday. Many traders will be leaving early today, with plans to return on Monday, which will likely lead to a low volume day of trading on Friday. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that the VIX continues to trend higher, trading above 20 this morning, reflecting rising nervousness on Wall Street with stocks near record territory. The dollar index hit a new 16-month high of 96.9 this morning as the euro continues to tumble, creating concerns for how the strong greenback may hurt the U.S. economy. Crude oil prices are quietly lower at this hour, while the Ags were mixed to higher.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to a new post-pandemic low 199K in the week ending November 20, down from 268K claims the previous week and well below analyst expectations of 264K claims. In fact, last week’s claims number is the lowest weekly total since November 15, 1969, when it was just 197K. The 71K decline in weekly claims dropped the four-week moving average to 252.25K, down from 273.25K the previous week. Continuing claims of individuals still unable to find work fell another 60K in the latest week reported to 2.049 million, which is again the lowest total since March 14, 2020, when the number was 1.770 million. People are returning to work, reflecting the strength of the economy.

Durable goods orders fell 0.5% month-on-month in October, after falling 0.4% in September. Analysts had expected a 0.3% increase month-on-month in durable goods orders. However, durable goods orders minus transportation rose by 0.5%, matching analyst expectations. Furthermore, September durable goods orders were revised to 0.7% month-on-month gains, up from the 0.4% gains originally reported. The Federal Reserve closely monitors core capital goods orders that reflect growth prospects for businesses. That number rose 0.6% month-on-month in October, matching analyst expectations. The September number was revised to 1.3% growth, up from 0.8% reported originally. The bottom line is that transportation orders slowed in October, but demand for durable goods otherwise remained strong during the month, reflecting a healthy economy.

Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the third quarter, in today’s second reading of third quarter data. That was up from the 2.0% growth rate for the third quarter that was previously reported, although it matched analyst expectations. Personal consumption expenditures grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in the third quarter, up from analyst expectations that it would remain at the originally reported rate of 1.6%. Other data showed that corporate profits were up 27.6% year-on-year in the third quarter. While strong, that was down from the 70.5% growth in profits seen year-on-year in the second quarter. Of course, those year-on-year numbers were reflective of growth coming out of the pandemic shutdown. Corporate profits with inventory and consumption adjustments were up 19.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, which again was down from a 45.1% rate in the second quarter.

China reported just 4 new local Covid cases yesterday, with two of those cases in Dalian and two in Yunnan. Yet, China’s economy continues to suffer due to its zero-tolerance policy toward Covid. Passenger road traffic was down 42% year-on-year, while down 23% year-to-date from the previous year. People are staying home, spending less in the process. Yet, China has little choice, at this point, but to maintain its zero-tolerance policy. Its population has relatively low natural immunity levels, due to its sustained zero-tolerance policy, and its vaccines has a lower effectiveness rate of many others in the developed world. Altering its policy at this point could result in hundreds of thousands of positive cases per day in a country where rural health care is lacking. China’s healthcare system could be overwhelmed. This puts China in a difficult position as it seeks to exert its strength as a world power, both economically and militarily. China remains a country of strategic importance that wields a great deal of influence. It has strategically leveraged its influence to create dependency among many nations needing to do business with it. China has also promised to “reunite” Taiwan to the homeland, using military strength if necessary. Yet, its economy faces increasing headwinds due to its strict Covid restrictions, with no apparent way out. But also, it’s important not to under-estimate China’s ability to deal with difficult challenges, which it has shown an ability to do in the past. It remains the world’s second largest economy, with the largest army of active personnel totaling 2.2 million and reserve personnel of another 1.2 million. It will do whatever it deems necessary to feed the world’s largest population and to protect what it deems to be its sovereignty. It has significant challenges, but it’s still very relevant.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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