Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 10 Sep 2021, 13:32

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 10 – There’s a somber tone on Wall Street this morning as we remember 9-11. The memory of that dark day 20 years ago tomorrow overshadowed updated inflation data released this morning. The VIX is trading near 17 in early trade, while the dollar index is trading below 92.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 1.32%. Commodity prices found support from a weaker dollar overnight, with crude oil prices trading more than 2% higher, while the Ags were mixed to higher as well ahead of today’s highly anticipated USDA WASDE crop report, that is expected to provide fresh direction to the grain and oilseed sector.

We shall never forget 9-11. America was changed forever twenty years ago this weekend when two planes flew into the twin towers of the World Trade Center, followed by another plane flying into the U.S. Pentagon and another driven into the ground in Pennsylvania by passengers determined to prevent their hijacker’s attempts to strike the White House. America bounced back from that attack, as she always has, but with a new awareness of the new world that we now live in. The attack claimed 2,996 lives, while injuring countless more. Many on Wall Street lost coworkers and loved ones, but the ripple effect of the attack reached everyone in America. We stood together on that day, and we rebuilt. The tragic events of that day provided a reminder for all of us that both freedom and opportunity come with a price, but it’s a price worth paying. We are strong, because of that freedom.

Inflation at the wholesale level continues to make new highs. The producer price index rose 0.7% month-on-month in August, down from 1.0% in July, but beating analyst expectations of 0.6% growth. The PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year in August, matching analyst estimates, while up from 7.8% the previous month. Core PPI excludes the more volatile food and energy components. One can argue whether economists should do that, but it is what Federal Reserve policymakers pay more attention to when assessing policy decisions. The core PPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in August, down from 1.0% in July, but exceeding analyst expectations of 0.5% growth. Core PPI made a new high of 7.3% rise year-on-year in August, up from 6.2% the previous month and beating analyst estimates that it would be at “just” 6.6%.

President Biden held a 90-minute conversation with China’s President Xi Jinping overnight, seeking to find some common ground to restore the relationship between the two countries. It was the second such conversation held between the two leaders since Biden was sworn into office on January 20^th. The two countries are far apart on many sectors, but they are tightly intertwined in the business world. China likes that, as it is betting that the business connections will drive the politics in the long-term. Trade continues between the two countries, with little sign that will change anytime soon. Tensions over Taiwan have increased, particularly after the United States has withdrawn from Afghanistan. The Biden Administration has shown support for Taiwan, while China has spoken of the day when it will retake Taiwan. Everyone speaks of that day in the distant future when Taiwan may become the flashpoint putting the relationship between the United States and China to the ultimate test as if it is beyond the foreseeable future, with the same complacency that we held 20 years ago on September 10^th, 2001. Both countries have taken positions that will eventually bring that day of reckoning if they continue on the same path, which is a black swan event possible at an unknown future time. Until then, trade continues as usual.

USDA is scheduled to release its September WASDE crop report at Noon EDT today, with significant implications for the grain and oilseed markets, as well as for the livestock markets. Today’s report will include USDA’s first corn and soybean production estimates grounded in objective field samples. The sampled corn and soybean fields were not mature, for the most part, but they will provide the best indicator of crop size that we’ve had to date. Historically, we’ve always said that the change from USDA’s August estimate would set the trend for crop size that would carry throughout the fall, but we can no longer say that with confidence. August used to be the first month in which USDA did objective field samples. Now September is the first time. As such, we should rather be looking at the September data as we previously looked at the August estimates, with the trend set by the October changes. The other big focus today will be planted and harvested acreage changes normally reserved for October. The WASDE team felt that it has seen enough FSA farmer certification data to make the changes in September today. The data we’ve seen suggests a million-acre increase in corn area, with only a minor adjustment in soybeans. We believe that has already been priced into the markets, putting the focus then on changes on the demand side of the ledger.

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
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Morning Grain Comments 8-6

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Grains & Oilseeds

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