By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
September 3 – Stock futures traded quietly mixed to higher overnight, while the commodity space was much more active, along with the currency markets. The VIX continues to trade near 15 this morning, while the dollar index fell lower to trade near 99.0 as the yen surged in value. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.74%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.31%. WTI crude oil is near $92 per barrel, while Brent trades near $96. The grain and oilseed markets took a big hit overnight when Russian President Putin mentioned the word “peace” in a statement at a time when the speculative funds had built quite a war premium into prices.
First-time jobless claims for the week ending August 29 totaled 206K, up from 204K the previous week, up from analyst expectations of 205K, but still a low number. The four-week average for claims rose to 207.25K, up from 205.75K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending August 22 totaled 1.779 million, up 8K from the previous week. The four-week moving average dropped to 1.782 million, down 5K from the previous week. Today’s Challenger Job-Cut report indicated that corporations announced the possibility of laying off 52,881 employees in the weeks ahead, up from 33,429 the previous month, but still not out of the ordinary. Overall, the job market remains relatively well balanced, with slightly more positions available than those looking for work. That said, the primary focus will be on tomorrow morning’s monthly jobs report from the government, following a pretty weak report a month ago.
Grain and oilseed prices dropped sharply overnight, led by wheat, following comments made by Russian President Vladimir Putin to an economic forum in East Russia. Putin stated that there was a “chance” for a peace agreement to end the war with Ukraine, adding that he wanted to re-establish a relationship with the United States, and that China wanted Ukraine and Russia to work toward peace. His comments come days after he rejected an offer from Turkey to create a grain corridor in the Black Sea to allow food-based commodities to flow once again, stating that he didn’t think it would be effective in bringing an end to the war. Putin added that jumpstarting peace talks would be more difficult due to Ukrainian attacks on shipping, while also calling for Ukraine to halt civilian aircraft movement in Russian airspace. Be careful not to interpret the big move in overnight grain prices as a sign that peace is around the corner. Instead, consider the context in which we’d seen a sharp rise in speculative war premium over the past several weeks that left traders nervous when Putin even said the word peace. Remember that Putin is a politician, and he has to worry about image ahead of this month’s “elections.” I see no actual evidence that Russia – or Ukraine for that matter – is moving toward de-escalation. The market was over-bought and due for a correction, particularly with a big USDA crop report coming up at the end of this week. Putin’s comments provided the excuse needed for that correction. In the meantime, Russian and Ukraine export shipments have dropped to roughly 40% of previous levels, and they continue to decline.
The Japanese yen rallied sharply overnight at the expense of the U.S. dollar following hawkish comments made by Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata, who stated that the BOJ should hike interest rates nimbly to counter intensifying inflation pressures. That represented some of the strongest language that we’ve seen from the BOJ regarding hiking interest rates to control inflation. A joint yen-buying intervention plan between Japan and the United States helped support the yen at the end of July, but the yen has since struggled to sustain that strength since then until that comment. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. sovereign debt. Rising interest rates in Japan provide incentive for investors to bring their money back home, reducing buyers of U.S. sovereign debt. That results in higher rates for U.S. debt certificates as the market tries to stimulate demand to fill the gap for those certificates. Inflation tied to the Iran and Black Sea wars gets much of the blame for higher interest rates, but a problem of rising global sovereign debt is also a significant factor, perhaps more so overseas than here, but still a factor here as well.
U.S. grain and oilseed prices came under significant profit taking pressure 24 hours ago in overnight trading, before rallying back to erase those losses as U.S. trade desks opened. Yet, they struggled to hold those gains into the close. That alone was a troubling sign, before Putin’s comments allowed another excuse for the market to break lower. That shows the current vulnerability to the grain and oilseed markets currently following the recent run up in prices. Fundamentally, the oilseed complex has strong demand in the current biofuel program combined with nearly daily Chinese buying. The story for corn and wheat is more tied to the Black Sea, and perceptions on whether that war is going to increase demand for U.S. products. Corn export demand is strong regardless, but that doesn’t necessarily matter in the short-term when we’re about to harvest a big crop. USDA will weigh in on the size of that crop next week, but harvest pressure can still produce a surge in selling in the near term regardless.
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Europe's maize crop has been cut back hard by consecutive heatwaves, leaving feed buyers short of the grain they normally rely on. With Ukrainian supply constrained and feed wheat pulled toward export demand, the substitution that usually solves the problem has become a competition.
Europe's maize crop has been cut back hard by consecutive heatwaves, leaving feed buyers short of the grain they normally rely on. With Ukrainian supply constrained and feed wheat pulled toward export demand, the substitution that usually solves the problem has become a competition.
European rapeseed production estimates have been cut again, pushing crushers toward a larger import program at the same time river logistics remain restricted. What arrives now depends on Ukrainian export capacity and an upgraded Australian canola crop rather than on domestic supply.
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