Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 30 Sep 2021, 13:33

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 30 – It’s the end of the fiscal quarter today, as well as the end of the government’s fiscal year. Congressional leaders report this morning that they have reached a deal to fund the government through early December, but no bill has yet been sent to the president’s desk. Yet, Wall Street tends to not be overly concerned about keeping the government open, but it is far more focused on the plethora of other issues facing the country. For today, the end of the fiscal quarter is set to start with modestly higher stock values, with the VIX slipping lower to trade near 22. The dollar index pushed to a fresh one-year high 94.5 this morning, while yields on 10-year Treasuries sit near 1.54%. Crude oil prices were more than 1% lower in this morning’s trade, while the Ags were mostly higher ahead of today’s USDA quarterly stocks and small grains summary reports.

First time claims for unemployment benefits totaled 362K for the week ending September 25, up from 351K the previous week. That raises the four-week moving average to 340K claims, up from 335.75K the previous week. Continuing claims for those still unable to find work fell another 18K to 2.802 million people. Those numbers are not quite down to pre-pandemic levels, but they’re getting close. Continuing claims are the lowest since the week ending March 21, 2020, when the total sat at 2.072 million.

However, we need to closely monitor the weekly claims numbers as new policies that mandate vaccines take effect. I’m not speaking here to the pros or cons of the vaccine, but rather to the reality that there is a significant sector of the population that is resistant to taking it, to the point of being willing to forfeit their job rather than to be forced to get the jab. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that it may take considerable time before we get to full employment when he would feel comfortable reversing his easy-money policy stance. This may be one of the reasons that it will take time to get to full employment. We do not know yet how implementation of the new policies will impact the unemployment numbers, but we do know that many agencies and businesses under such policies have begun to let people go who have not yet been vaccinated. Ironically, this comes at a time when national Covid numbers have been falling over the past month, with some states in decline for nearly two months, while a few states are still seeing their numbers on the rise.

Inflation continues to be the hot topic on Wall Street, combined with discussion of the massive spending bills being considered by Congress. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi proposed suspending the debt limit, rather than raising it. Suspending it would help Congress avoid needing to make substantial increases to the debt limit to accommodate implementing the spending bills that it would like to approve. Wall Street is largely still discounting passage of the spending bills. It likes the increased money flow that could benefit the markets, but it worries about the inflationary effects that could negatively impact the economy. Supply chain disruptions will likely remain with us for quite some time, and the extra fiscal and monetary stimulus increase demand to further aggravate the supply chain disruptions. Inflation is very real in the commodity sector – albeit in some specific commodities more than others. The rising dollar reflects near-term movement of foreign money into the U.S. markets to take advantage of our higher yielding securities, but also creates headwinds for the commodities. Thus far, those headwinds have been overshadowed by increased demand for commodities relative to supply. Many traders also see ownership of commodities as a way to hedge against inflation risks in their portfolios.

Today’s focus in the Ags will be on USDA’s quarterly grain stocks and small grains summary reports. These reports are known for their market-moving surprises. I can generally predict which direction a surprise would likely be in USDA’s monthly WASDE reports. That’s more challenging for the quarterly stocks reports. USDA’s bullish corn stocks report surprises the past two years were anticipated and made logical sense. But my analysis over the long-term is that both the direction and scope of surprises in the stocks reports generally lack logic, and they are therefore difficult to predict. There are several potential reasons for that, but for our purposes today, the point is that grain and oilseed traders have to be prepared for anything on these quarterly reports. Beyond today, the focus fundamentally shifts back to the size of the crops. I do see increasing evidence that we may be looking at an increase in the soybean yield that could ease some supply concerns, while corn yields still show conflicting signals from region to region. However, I would also warn that I see signs that the outside markets influences may be higher than normal in the weeks ahead tied to the factors outlined above.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Energy
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Cocoa
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Energy
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Cocoa
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

Grains & Oilseeds

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