Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 08 Sep 2021, 13:36

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 8 – Stocks remained under light pressure overnight, as traders contemplate whether the economy can sustain its current growth curve amid modest headwinds coming from several factors. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, after pushing to its highest level since August 20^th just below 20 earlier in the session. The dollar index rallied to another fresh one-week high above 92.7 this morning as demand for greenbacks rises. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 1.36%, pulling back from yesterday’s nearly-two-month highs above 1.38%. Crude oil prices are trading nearly 2% higher after erasing Tuesday’s losses. The Ags are mostly higher in early trade, bouncing back following notable losses on Tuesday as some Gulf export terminals reopen.

Slowing growth is a theme heard around Wall Street this week, following last week’s disappointing monthly jobs report. There were a lot of positives in that report, but Wall Street is largely focused on the small number of jobs created in August, despite a record number of posted job openings. It would seem that the lack of job growth has more to do with the lack of available workers than it does a slowdown in economic growth, or said another way, any slowdown in economic growth may have more to do with the lack of available workers that hinders expansion. This debate also takes place as debate over the Fed’s potential tapering heats up. I’ve previously mentioned comments made by Kansas City Fed president and CEO Esther George about the need to move toward tapering sooner rather than later, after she suggested in recent statements that the Fed should lay out a timeline at this month’s meeting. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard also argued for moving forward with a tapering plan in an interview with the Financial Times this week. The overall product of the above discussion is that economists are downward revising their economic growth forecasts.

Refineries are coming back online quicker than is Gulf crude oil output following Hurricane Ida’s passage. The latest data shows roughly 1 million barrels per day of refinery capacity still offline, although it’s questionable whether those that have returned to operation are operating at full capacity. Yet, shut-in oil production in the Gulf is still down 1.44 mbpd, accounting for 79.3% of the Gulf’s production. Natural gas production losses remain near 1.7 billion cubic feet per day, or 78% of production. Crews have returned to 20 producing platforms and one rig as of Tuesday’s report. The trade will be watching the government’s energy inventory reports closely this week and next to assess the scope of expected draw downs in both crude oil and product inventories, hoping that this will be the only major tropical storm that we need to deal with in the Gulf production region this year.

Grain export activity is slowly ramping up as power is restored and repairs are completed to damaged facilities. I’ve seen reports that Entergy has restored power to up to 80% of New Orleans customers. That includes some grain export terminals, although many in the core terminal area are said to still be waiting. Some grain is being rerouted to other locations, with a couple of export terminals suffering significant damage. Yet, there is still an expectation and hope that overall export demand will not suffer as a result of Hurricane Ida, despite the current disruptions. That’s not a sure thing yet, as the industry still has some challenges ahead of it in getting grain moving, but we remain cautiously optimistic that the longer-term impacts will be minimal on the demand side of the ledger. Getting soybeans to China is probably the most critical component to see move in the near-term. It was good to see another USDA announced flash sale of 3.9 million bushels of U.S. soybeans this morning. It was the first announced sale of soybeans to China since Thursday, after seeing nearly daily announcements for much of August, suggesting that Chinese buyers once again have confidence in U.S. exporters’ ability to deliver.

The markets are actively pricing in expectations that demand will be hurt by the damage done by Hurricane Ida to New Orleans port facilities, but more than that, they are also pricing in expectations of a larger supply. The trade expects modest increases in USDA’s corn and soybean yield estimates when it releases its monthly WASDE crop report on Friday, but adjustments are also expected to USDA’s harvested acreage estimates – especially for corn. That may be the greater concern currently for traders. The USDA WASDE team has access to farmer certification data with its FSA offices that will also be revealed on Friday. FSA released data on August 12^th suggesting that we could see a modest rise in corn and decrease in soybean acres down the road, but it gave no indication on the percent of farmer certifications that had been processed relative to normal for the August report. As such, we do not know if the acreage changes will be reflective of the August data, or something much different, creating uncertainty.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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