Perspective: Morning Commentary January 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 22 Jan 2026, 14:26

Today's Perspective Video: The United States Won't Invade Greenland & Soybean Export Math

January 22 – Stocks rallied Wednesday afternoon after President Trump announced that he had a framework agreement with NATO nations over the control of Greenland, promising to lift scheduled tariffs on eight European countries as a result. That strength continued into the overnight hours as well, leading to the VIX falling to trade near 16 this morning. The dollar index is trading near 98.6 as calm returns to the markets. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.26% after closing a chart gap below them that was established on Tuesday, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.61%. Crude oil prices are notably lower today, although still trading inside of yesterday’s trading range, after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright spoke in Davos, calling for a doubling of global oil output. He also warned European companies their region’s environmental regulations needed to be pulled back if they hoped to work with U.S. energy companies. Grain and oilseed prices were modestly higher overnight.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits came in at 200K in the week ending January 17, up from a very low 199K the previous week, but below analyst expectations of 205K claims. The four-week moving average slipped lower to 201.5K, down from 205.25K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending January 10 dropped by 26K to 1.849 million, after the previous week’s total was revised down by 9K. The four-week moving average for continuing claims is now at 1.871 million, down 16,250 from the previous week’s average. First-time claims filed by former Federal civilian workers totaled 1,010 in the week ending January 10, up 364 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending January 3 totaled 12,977, up 174 from the previous week. Overall, these numbers reflect a low layoff rate, and show signs of improving softness in rehiring, although we’ll need follow-through reductions in the continuing claims going forward.

The final reading for third quarter gross domestic product saw an improvement in GDP growth to an annualized rate of 4.4%, up from 4.3% that was originally reported, and above analyst expectations that it would hold at 4.3%. Personal consumption expenditures remained steady at 3.5% growth in the third quarter, which matched analyst expectations. I took a look this morning at the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model that estimates current GDP growth in the nation’s economy. It currently has U.S. GDP growth sitting at 5.4%, as of January 21.

President Trump addressed roughly 60 global heads of state Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, He calmed the markets when he stated that he would not use military force to take Greenland, but he accompanied that with an explanation of Greenland’s strategic significance for the protection of both Europe and the United States. The markets were calmed by his comments, leading stocks to rally and the VIX to fall. But many European leaders were still offended, leading the European Commission to suspend work on the U.S. – Europe trade deal. Yet, within hours President Trump emerged again to state that a framework agreement has been reached regarding Greenland, and as a result, scheduled 10% tariffs that were to go into effect February 1^st against eight European countries would be suspended. Trump stated in later interviews that his overall objective had been reached. The United States will have full access to Greenland to set up the Golden Dome defense network to shield both Europe and the United States from potential threats coming from either Russia or China. Details are still lacking, but it appears that leaders came together to a common objective. The United States will not need to pay anything for access to Greenland, based on recent comments, although the cost of the protective dome will be substantial. Regardless, NATO and the United States are on the same page this morning.

Chinese and U.S. negotiators met in Davos to discuss trade relations between the two powers. China acknowledged that it has purchased the promised 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, although U.S. negotiators hint that we may never see a comprehensive trade agreement between the two countries. Nevertheless, negotiators are expected to continue working ahead of an anticipated meeting of President Trump and President Xi later this year. Both presidents have an incentive to maintain the sense of a truce between their two countries. President Trump is expected to push for more purchases of U.S. Ag commodities by China – broadening the scope of those commodities – ahead of the November midterm elections. President Xi seems eager to focus on purchasing what is necessary to maintain peace while he focuses on shoring up support at home, where the domestic economy is struggling. Both have maintained their long-term objectives, but both are willing to follow a strategy that avoids direct conflict for 2026 while they focus on the domestic front. Two flashpoints that could still result in the truce blowing up are rare earth minerals and Taiwan. The rare earth minerals issue appears to be resolved sufficiently to keep that issue off the table near-term, but the Taiwan issue is so volatile that it wouldn’t take much of a spark to ignite that powder keg, keeping it as a risk to commodity trade in the months ahead.

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