Perspective: Morning Commentary March 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 17 Mar 2026, 13:26

Today's Perspective Video: Strait of Hormuz Closure Ripples Through Crop Markets

March 17 – Stock futures were quietly mixed to firmer overnight as the Iran war lingers into its 18^th day. Energy prices remain high, but Wall Street slowly gets used to the headlines, allowing fears to ease for the time being. The VIX is trading near 22 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.67%. Crude oil prices are trading near $96 per barrel amid the ongoing shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, while the grain and oilseed complex is mixed, with wheat prices slipping lower and soybean oil leading the soybean complex higher.

President Trump asked other nations to assist in opening the Strait of Hormuz, so that the flow of energy could once again ease concerns. But most nations fear getting involved, leading it up to the United States for now, and its military assets are still tied up with trying to neutralize Iran’s military capabilities. It will be able to focus on the Strait once it has accomplished that objective. Meanwhile, oil produced behind the Strait has backed up to the point of filling up storage, requiring wells to be shut down. It will take some weeks for those wells to be restarted once the flow of oil resumes. It’s not a question of if, but of when. But the when in this case has significant implications for the global economy. Some ship refueling depots depend on oil flowing through the Strait for producing fuel needed to keep trade flowing. As such, fuel is currently said to be prioritized toward high priority shipments, with dry bulk carriers near the bottom of that list, threatening fuel for grain and oilseed cargoes, raising costs for shipments that do occur, and slowing movement of commodities around the world. Ships are rerouting where possible to operate where fuel is available. All of this contributes to inflation, although that fear has eased for now on Wall Street. That will likely remain the case until we get into next month, and we see inflation numbers for the month of March.

That buys President Trump some time, but it is also likely why he is interested in delaying his trip to Beijing to focus on keeping the war with Iran on track for a quick completion. Nobody expects the issues within Iran to be solved anytime soon, but it is hoped that Israel and the United States can at least neutralize Iran’s military capabilities so that it can no longer have the ability to create fear for shippers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing oil, fertilizer and other products to flow once again. We do not expect prices to immediately return to pre-war levels at that point, but at least it would be a step toward relieving the fear in the market, and a step toward replenishing supplies for much of the world.

CBS News reported this morning that President Trump will host a “Celebration of Agriculture” event at the White House on March 27. It is reported that farm groups and biofuel producers have been invited to the event. That raises speculation that the White House scheduled this event to announce the final RVO biofuel guidelines that we’ve been waiting for over the past year plus. Soybean oil prices spiked 150 points when the headline hit this morning, as the scheduled event raises optimism that the final guidelines will be very positive for biofuel feedstock demand over the next couple of years. We’ll already be one-quarter of the way through 2026 when the even occurs, and it will take some time for biofuel producers to ramp up production if the guidelines are bullish for fuel production. Considerable soyoil stocks have accumulated over the past year while waiting for the final guidelines, but the speculation is that those stocks would be quickly spoken for, as producers anticipate tighter supplies down the road. This is mostly about biomass diesel production at this point, with few new wrinkles expected for ethanol now. Ethanol’s hopes largely hinge on getting legislation through Congress to allow for year-around sales of E-15 blends to encourage the infrastructure to be built to support E-15 sales to increase demand for ethanol, and to therefore increase demand for corn to produce it. However, that legislation continues to be tied up in Congress.

Soybean prices plummeted the daily limit lower on Monday following President Trump’s suggestion that he will seek to delay his trip to Beijing. The above story gave soybean prices a bit of a bounce this morning, but traders have taken notice of the absence of talk about soybeans in a potential trade deal with China. A trade deal is still likely, but it may focus on other things beyond soybeans, as I suggested six weeks ago. China doesn’t have room for more soybeans at this point, but it does have room for other commodities. Soybean arrivals from Brazil are picking up, with ship lineups suggesting arrivals of 5.5 million metric tons in March, 9.5 mmt in April, and 11 mmt in May. Shipments were slow to start the year, but the above lineup would suggest that this year’s shipments will catch up with the five-year average pace by later this spring. Meanwhile, soybean inventories at China’s ports are the highest in years, despite the slow start to the year. Inventories are currently said to be at 8.3 mmt, or near 305 million bushels, which is up by nearly 10% from levels seen a year ago. Soybean crush for the year-to-date totals 18.26 mmt, up 1.9% from the same period last year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 18

June 18 – Stock futures pushed higher early this morning as investors weighed prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening against a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The VIX remained slightly elevated near 17 this morning, although that is below yesterday’s high near 19. The dollar index however continues to push higher to fresh one-year highs near 100.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, after pushing to fresh 16-month highs on Wednesday. The yield curve continues to flatten amid rising inflation risks. Yet, WTI crude oil put in a fresh three-month low this morning near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets tried to push higher overnight, but then they came under pressure in the early morning hours today. The markets are closed for Juneteenth Day tomorrow.

Arlan SudermanThu, 18 Jun 2026, 13:29

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European Crop Recovery Masks Growing Weather Risks Ahead

Improving crop conditions across Europe have eased immediate supply concerns, but weather remains a critical variable for grain markets. Recent rains have supported crop recovery, yet shrinking maize acreage and renewed heat risks suggest production forecasts may still face meaningful challenges in the months ahead.

Editorial TeamWed, 17 Jun 2026, 15:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 17

June 17 – Stock futures consolidated overnight in relatively quiet trade. It’s Fed Day on Wall Street as war headlines begin to calm, with investors focused on this afternoon’s statement and press conference from the Federal Reserve after incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh chairs his first set of policy meetings. The VIX is still trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.06%, as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten amid lingering inflation worries. WTI crude oil dropped to a fresh 15-week low this morning at $74.59 per barrel, before bouncing to trade near $77 per barrel, while Brent trades near $80 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly firmer overnight, with wheat prices leading the way higher amid adverse European weather.

Arlan SudermanWed, 17 Jun 2026, 13:33

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