Perspective: Morning Commentary November 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 13 Nov 2025, 14:35

November 13 – The government is back open again for the first time since September 30. It will take some time for the data to flow once again, but at least we know that it is coming. Stock futures pulled modestly lower overnight, while the VIX consolidated near 18. The dollar index is trading near 99.3, reflecting a two-week low. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.60%. Crude oil prices slipped briefly to fresh three-week lows before rallying to nearly 1% gains as selling interest dried up near $58 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was mixed ahead of the pause, with soybean prices surging to new highs for the move ahead of tomorrow’s USDA data dump, while corn and wheat prices continued to struggle.

The agreement reached with China in late October is seen as more of a de-escalation than an actual trade agreement. Yes, both sides agreed to various terms that one could call a trade agreement, but we still lack specifics on long-term changes to trading patterns. Rather, this continues to look like an attempt to de-escalate things. Ironically, the agreement came following a period when there were considerable questions on whether President Xi would even agree to meet with President Trump when they both attended the APEC conference in South Korea. President Xi appeared quite confident in escalating tensions when it totally closed the door to rare earth mineral and magnet exports the first week of October – not just to the United States, but to much of the rest of the world as well. President Xi displayed a level of confidence that said, now is the time to start picking global winners and losers in who can have a healthy manufacturing sector, and who can have a strong military with advanced defense weapons. That was a bold step that he took.

President Trump quickly responded to Xi’s actions by threatening an additional 100% tariff on all goods coming from China starting November 1 if China refused to withdraw its export restrictions on rare earths. I’ve previously outlined how this was a national security issue for the United States, and for many other western countries as well. President Trump admitted in an interview that the 100% additional tariffs were not sustainable, but he stayed with the threat as we approached the end of October. That reflected the gravity of what China had done.

Then came the Fourth Plenum meeting in China. This event, held every five years, is not just a strategic planning retreat. It is a major political event for the Chinese Communist Party. This is the event where party leaders assess where the country is headed, and any course corrections that they want to make. That includes removing old leaders who no longer have their support, while installing new leaders to provide a fresh approach. Rumors circulated regarding attempts to remove Xi from office, but we remained confident that he would remain in power. Yet, the four days of meetings would certainly give Xi Jinping a sense of the strength of his power base. A strong power base might embolden him to take a strong stance against President Trump – possibly not even meeting with him in South Korea. But any signs of weakness might lead him to seek a quick agreement to calm the international waters so that he can focus on rebuilding support at home.

We got an agreement. That doesn’t mean that Xi’s long-term objectives have change, nor have the long-term objectives of the CCP changed. Both still fully intend to topple the United States from its position of having the top economy and the top military in the world, while displacing the dollar with the yuan as the global currency of choice. That hasn’t changed. But China plays the long-game, and it knows that President Trump is only a short-timer in the United States. Everything could change next November if he loses Congress. So, it made short-term concessions to calm the waters, easing stress at home, while keeping the long-term objectives in sight. As such, China’s central bank looks to hold off anticipated rate cuts until the first quarter of 2026 as it pulls back from its stimulus mode into more of a stability mode amid China’s massive growing debt problem. This comes at a time when there are signs that the impact of stimulus programs on consumer spending is starting to wane.

USDA released its weekly export sales report for the week ending September 25 this morning. It says that it will release more data tomorrow morning. USDA released a massive data dump of total sales occurring during the shutdown in one report the last time we went through this, but we still lack official word on whether that will be how it handles things following this record long shutdown. Regardless, USDA will release its November WASDE crop report tomorrow. Soybean prices surged to fresh 16-month highs early this morning as traders gambled on the risk that USDA could release a bullish crop report tomorrow. Market observers are debating on whether that was speculative buying, or China’s state grain buyer providing the early session pop. Production estimates ahead of tomorrow’s report vary by 268 million bushels for soybeans and 368 million bushels for corn.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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