Perspective: Morning Commentary November 21

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 21 Nov 2025, 14:49

November 21 – The equities searched for firm footing overnight after worries over high valuations and Fed rate cut uncertainties rocked the markets again on Thursday. The VIX traded near 25 this morning, after surging to a one-month high above 28 yesterday, reflecting elevated anxiety on Wall Street. The dollar index traded near 100.3, after dropping to a fresh nearly six-month high earlier in the session. Yields on 10-year Treasuries traded near 4.07%, after falling to fresh three-week lows as money flowed into the relative safety of the securities market, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 3.51%. Crude oil prices are sliding to fresh four-week lows below $58 per barrel on elevated over-supply concerns. The grain and oilseed sector traded mostly lower overnight as well, reflecting the general risk-off sentiment that still lingers in the commodity sector this morning, although some value-buying is emerging this morning.

The elevated VIX tells the story of investor nerves across much of the trading space this month. Wall Street’s “fear index” probed briefly above 28 yesterday for just the third time since late April. The VIX normally trades in the low- to mid-teens under “normal” circumstances. It’s been my observation over the past several decades that it is difficult for any commodity asset to sustain a rally when the VIX Is above 30 unless that asset has a strong story of its own. Investors may have a bullish conviction about a particular asset, but the strength of that conviction starts to wane as fear rises on the Street, and they tend to put those convictions on hold if fear rises enough to push the VIX over 30. The fears in this case are generally rooted in two concerns. First, Wall Street feeds on easy money, and that means rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Stocks obviously can rally under a restrictive monetary policy, as they’ve done for much of the past several years. But the preference is easy money when rates are coming down. Second, investors are spooked by some recent statements by members of the Street that tech stocks “may” be overly valued based on the current artificial intelligence movement. Nvidia’s strong earnings report eased those concerns briefly, but it could not silence the fear mongers.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan stated this morning that she could not support a December rate cut when the Fed meets next month. She’s one of a long list of policymakers on the speaking circuit this week. Logan remains concerned about elevated inflation levels near 3%, while believing that the labor market is roughly balanced. Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Susan Collins raised fears in another speech of global fragmentation that could lead to more inflation, which could complicate the Fed’s work. These comments reflect a potential fragmentation within the board itself as some members become more vocal about their inflation concerns, which is sure to intensify the debate over further rate cuts at the next meeting in less than three weeks.

We finally have more data from the jobs sector following the reopening of the government, after the September jobs report was released. It’s headline numbers seemed encouraging, showing that the economy created 119K jobs during the month, including 97K private sector jobs, although the two previous month’s numbers were cut by a combined 33K jobs. Education and healthcare added 59K jobs in September, while leisure and hospitality added another 47K. Otherwise, job creation has been rather flat. Neither education nor healthcare makes job decisions based on the economy. For the most part, companies are not reporting mass layoffs, albeit a few headline exceptions due to AI. Rather the uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policies has companies reluctant to implement expansion plans supported by the “One Big Beautiful Bill” until that uncertainty goes away. Meanwhile, they’re not filling vacancies. That adds to consumer reluctance to make big ticket purchases due to that uncertainty. Meanwhile, M2 money supply remains near record high levels, with the economy juiced for rapid growth if / when Trump would remove that uncertainty. I would argue that you can’t take an academic approach to analyzing this economy based on historical analogs, because there aren’t any analogs to the current situation. What if the Fed adds to its rate cuts, and then President Trump returns certainty to tariff policy? Would the Fed then find itself stimulating an economy already juiced with money and resurgent consumer spending? On the other hand, what if it’s not in Trump’s DNA to remove uncertainty, even if that ends up costing him the mid-term elections?

Elevated fear on Wall Street trumps Chinese soybean purchases in the commodities currently. Yes, China has started to make commodity purchases. It’s yet to be seen to what extent it will live up to its agreement – which hasn’t even been finalized yet – but it is making purchases despite the high price of U.S. soybeans versus the alternatives. Commodity prices are on the defensive reflecting apprehension on the Street regarding the economy. The bounce in stocks this morning facilitated some bargain buying in the commodities, but nerves are still elevated as we head into the normally quieter holiday trading period.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 26

June 26 – Chip stocks weighed on stock futures overnight, contributing to general weakness across the board as Iran tries to take control of the Strait of Hormuz once again, testing the fragility of the ceasefire. The VIX elevated to trade near 21 this morning, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.10% as the yield curve steepens a bit this morning. WTI crude oil traded back below $70 per barrel this morning, as Brent traded near $73, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker as well ahead of the weekend.

Arlan SudermanFri, 26 Jun 2026, 13:41

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 25

June 25 - Stocks added to their gains early today, but the tech sector struggled to hold those gains as the morning progressed. This morning's inflation data came in pretty close to expectations - no surprises there. Other data showed the economy remaining relatively resilient through the war with Iran, with investors now expecting lower inflation expectations down the road, even as consumer spending remains solid. The VIX is trading just below 19 late morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.3 as it pulls back from 13-month highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, reflecting nearly seven-week lows, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.11%. WTI crude oil bounced off lows below $69 this morning to trade near $72 currently, while Brent trades near $75 per barrel. Prices rallied on news reports that a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile while traveling through the Strait of Hormuz near the coast of Oman. Several ships turned around, reportedly being warned to do so by Iran. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly higher at midday, with double-digit gains for soybeans amid a rebound in product prices.

Arlan SudermanThu, 25 Jun 2026, 16:16

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 25

June 25 – Stock futures pushed higher overnight, led by the tech sector, ahead of a plethora of key economic data released this morning, including durable goods orders for May and PCE inflation data. That data gave another initial modest push to those gains when released. The VIX is trading below 18 at this hour, while the dollar index trades near 101.6. Yields on 20-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%. WTI crude oil made new post-war lows this morning below $69 per barrel on reports that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, while the grain and oilseed sector was mixed, with corn and wheat prices again under modest pressure while soybeans posted modest gains.

Arlan SudermanThu, 25 Jun 2026, 13:32

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