Perspective: Morning Commentary October 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 08 Oct 2025, 13:33

Today's Perspective Video: Government Shutdown, OPEC Moves & China Trade Hopes

October 8 – It’s Day #8 of the partial government shutdown, with few signs of movement by either party toward a resolution. The Federal Reserve is not a government agency in the strict sense, so it is expected to release the minutes of its September policy meeting this afternoon, which should provide greater clarity on thinking within the Federal Open Market Committee. Stock futures pushed higher in quiet trading overnight in anticipation of those minutes supporting a continuation of the rate cut cycle when the Fed meets at the end of the month. Several members of the Fed will be speaking at various events today, possibly shedding some light as well. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index is trading higher near 98.7, posting fresh eight-week highs. The euro firmed a bit overnight, but the yen added to this week’s weakness on political turmoil there. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.56%. Crude oil prices are roughly 1% higher in early trade, continuing this week’s strength after OPEC+ showed restraint in its latest output increase decision made over the weekend. The grain and oilseed sector was mixed to firmer overnight.

The partial government shutdown is now moving into its second week. There have been at least some informal discussions between Republicans and Democrats regarding resolution of the funding conflict. The Senate simply doesn’t have the 60 votes needed to bring the House funding bill to the floor for debate and for an up or down vote. The House Bill states simply that funding would continue at its current levels until November 21, giving it more time for floor debate regarding possible changes in funding for the year ahead. It received bipartisan support to move it to the Senate. But the Senate needs 60 votes to move it to the floor, and Senate Democrats are blocking that from happening, hoping to get items from their agenda included. Republicans say that they have none of their agenda in the bill, so they have nothing to negotiate. Rather, those items should come from the floor when the normal budget process occurs once the government has been reopened. And thus the stalemate. These stalemates typically get resolved very quickly, because neither party wants to be blamed for a government shutdown. But this one feels different – like it could go for a while. As such, we should get this morning’s Petroleum Status Report from the Energy Information Administration, and we should continue to see grain and oilseed export inspection data on Monday mornings, but little else. USDA’s monthly WASDE crop report scheduled for tomorrow is not expected to happen as scheduled, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it is totally cancelled by early to mid- next week if we’re still in this stalemate, leaving us to wait until November for updated supply and demand data from USDA, if then.

The FOMC is scheduled to release the minutes of its September policy meeting this afternoon. It was the first meeting for newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran, a member of the Trump Administration, who argued for steep interest rate cuts. Miran was obviously not successful in getting his way at the September meeting, but his presence stirred fresh debate over the question of what constitutes a “neutral” interest rate that is neither stimulative nor restrictive. The minutes are expected to provide fresh insight into committee members openness to rate cuts while prices are still rising at a pace considerably above the mandated 2% level. Some argue that a neutral rate is below 2%, while I’ve argued that it may be above 4%. In fact, a recent Fed staff model examining different aspects of the economy found that overall financial metrics are boosting, rather than constraining, economic growth by roughly a percentage point per year. The current concern in the economy is over a soft job market, but layoffs remain low. Rather, companies simply are not filling positions due to the uncertainty of President Trump’s tariff policies, which is the reason that consumers are restraining their purchases as well. Meanwhile, M2 money supply is at or near record high levels, suggesting that the economy has plenty of juice in it. Additional rate cuts alone might not do much to strengthen the job market as long as immigration is restrained. Yet, if uncertainty were removed, we could see a boom in economic growth, and in attempts to hire.

A stronger dollar weighed on wheat prices again overnight, combined with ample supplies. Corn and soybean prices continued to find ongoing modest support from hopes of a trade deal with China at the end of the month. I’ve spoken frequently here about the expectation that the United States will have a strong biofuel program, increasing demand for corn, as well as for the crop oils for biomass diesel production, at least once the Environmental Protection Agency completes its work. But we’re not the only ones. Indonesia is continuing to work toward its goal of making biodiesel containing 50% palm oil-based biofuel by some point in 2026, up from 40% currently. It’s not likely to happen by its target date early next year, but they still expect to hit that goal later in the year. Brazil faces delays for moving to 16% blends by early next year, but it is still moving toward its goal as well. Demand for biodiesel in Brazil is expected to increase by 6.3% in 2026, after rising by 8.8% this year. Soybean oil demand – a key feedstock for biodiesel production – is expected to rise by 6.3% next year, after rising by 10.1% this year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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