Perspective: Morning Commentary September 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 29 Sep 2025, 13:48

Today's Perspective Video: U.S. Farm Sector at Risk

September 29 – It’s “jobs” week on Wall Street, in addition to seeing the end of the month and the end of the fiscal quarter tomorrow, while the Street also contemplates the possibility of a partial government shutdown tomorrow night. Stock futures pushed higher overnight in anticipation of this week’s jobs data providing support for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Remember, bad news is good news on the Street if it gets more rate cuts. As such, the VIX traded below 16 once again this morning, while the dollar index traded below 97.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.64%. Crude oil prices traded more than 2% lower overnight, after rising to seven-week highs on Friday, while the grain and oilseed sector was mostly weaker ahead of tomorrow’s set of USDA stocks and small grains summary reports.

Will we see a partial government shutdown tomorrow night? Does Wall Street care? Appropriated funding runs out for 438 government agencies at midnight tomorrow night, because Congress has not yet passed a funding measure to keep things going. All essential services will continue, which raises questions about why we’re funding government to do non-essential services. Nonetheless, Democrats and Republicans typically use this deadline as leverage to get what they want out of the appropriation process. Congress hasn’t passed a full budget appropriating funds for all areas of government since 1996 – nearly 30 years. As such, government has been funded by a series of continuing resolutions since that point. Federal workers are nearly always given back pay when the government shuts down, although workers have to make resources stretch in the meantime.

There have been 14 notable shutdowns since 1981, with most lasting no more than a day or two – maybe three. However, the last big shutdown lasted 35 days between December 2018 and January 2019. Republicans hold a narrow lead in both houses of Congress, but Senate rules require 60 votes to bring a measure to the floor. That means that Republicans need at least 7 Democrats to support bringing the funding measure to the floor, and thus far they are holding out and resisting the clean funding bill that the Republicans have offered. This leads to the question of, does Wall Street care? The markets don’t typically care unless the shutdown lasts long enough to negatively impact the economy due to federal workers cutting back spending. That 2018-2019 shutdown that furloughed an estimated 36% of federal workers cost the economy an estimated $3 billion, which was just 0.02% of the economy.

USDA announced this morning two more flash sales of corn on the export market, including another 5.3 million bushels of corn to Mexico and 4.4 million bushels to “unknown destinations.” Sales of more than 100K metric tons are required to be announced via USDA’s flash reporting system. There have been 57.5 million bushels of corn sales announced via this system over the past two weeks, with many more sales not included in the flash system. As such, known marketing year to date corn export commitments exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target by 212 million bushels, and that target is already a record high 2.975 billion bushels. On the other hand, the absence of Chinese soybean buying continues to weigh on demand for the oilseed. Marketing year to date export sales fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s current export target by 270 million bushels. As such, USDA will need to make substantial cuts to its current export target, which is already the lowest since 2019. I think it hoped that it would be making matching reductions to production to ease the impact on ending stocks, but thus far soybean yields continue to impress across much of the Midwest, including in some very dry areas. As such, we risk seeing notable increases to soybean ending stocks estimates in the October and/or November WASDE reports.

USDA releases its quarterly stocks report tomorrow, along with its small grains summary report – the final wheat production estimates of the year, along with other small grains. The stocks reports are known for their market moving surprises that often defy logic in the direction of those surprises. As such, anything is possible on stocks reports days. The monthly WASDE crop reports are projections of supply and demand, while the quarterly stocks reports are snapshots of reality on how those supply and demand estimates are truly playing out. They’re a measurement of what actually exists in the pipeline, or a fact-check of USDA’s projections and how they’re playing out. There will often times also be adjustments to the previous year’s production estimates – nearly always a reduction of production estimates. Beyond tomorrow’s reports, the focus will return to the size of this year’s crops. StoneX will release the results of its October customer survey estimating the size of this year’s corn and soybean crops on Wednesday afternoon, with other private estimates coming out in the days that follow. Corn yield results continue to confirm a smaller crop due to dryness – but mostly due to late season disease pressure. However, soybean yields continue to impress, suggesting only modest reductions, if any, in USDA’s yield estimate.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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