Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Peru’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 3.95 Million Bags, USDA
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
CoffeeNetwork
Peru’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 3.95 Million Bags, USDA
CoffeeNetwork – According to the latest USDA attache report, Peru’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee crop (April/March) is forecast at 3.95 million 60-kilogram bags, up 17% from the previous crop year.
(From the USDA report)
Production: Coffee production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (April/March) is forecast at 3.95 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), rebounding 17 percent from the previous year. This rebound is driven by a forecast of an excellent water supply, which favors flowering and the filling of grain. In addition, expected higher international prices will allow producers to invest in fertilizers and a more thorough harvesting, leaving less grain on the trees. Coffee producers have been facing financial difficulties in the past three years as revenues have not met production costs. Production estimates for MY 2019/20 and MY 2020/21 are revised down significantly because of these reasons and are further supported by lower reported export figures.
Area: Harvested area in MY 2021/22 is forecast at 330,000 hectares, remaining at about the same levels as the previous year. Harvesting commences in April and peaks in June-September. About 85 percent of the crop is harvested between April and July.
Yield: Average yields in MY 2021/22 are estimated at 718 kilograms per hectare, increasing 17 percent compared to the previous year. This significant increase is expected to be driven by higher international prices that encourages producers to perform more complete harvests. However, yields can reach upwards of 42 60-kg bags (2,520 kg) per hectare on well-managed plantations.
Trade: Peru’s coffee exports in MY 2021/22 are forecast at 3.85 million bags, increasing 16 percent from the previous year. Exports in MY 2019/20 and MY 2020/21 are revised downward by 15 percent and 24 percent, respectively, on lower reported trade figures. The United States continued to be the top market for Peruvian coffee in MY 2020/21, accounting for 25 percent of total exports. Other important destinations include Germany, which accounts for 21 percent, Colombia with 11 percent, and Belgium with 8 percent of total coffee exports. Export prices of Peruvian coffee in MY 2020/21 increased 10 percent, averaging $3,157 per MT.
With some 90,000 certified organic hectares, Peru is the world’s leading exporter of organic coffee. In addition to these certified hectares, a large portion of Peru’s coffee exports are organic by default, attributed in large part to the smaller growers’ inability to pay for costly chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Foreign demand for specialty coffee motivates some smaller growers to seek out specialized certification. Current certifications that are accessible to smaller coffee farmers include:
- Fair Trade: Certified by Fair Trade Labeling Organizations International (FLO)
- Organic: Certified by several agencies such as USDA’s National Organic Program (NOP), Japanese Agricultural Standards (JAS), Natureland, and the Organic Crop Improvement Association (OCIA)
- Sustainable Coffee: Certified by the Rainforest Alliance
- Café Practice: Certified by Starbucks
- Other certifications include bat friendly and bird friendly
Peruvian coffee producers are frequent participants in international coffee contests which they consider an important strategy to distinguish themselves as high-quality producers, which could lead to higher incomes and better prices for producers. Peruvian producers have won the Best Specialty Coffee award at the Global Specialty Coffee Expo several times.
Consumption: Domestic consumption in MY 2021/22 is forecast at 225,000 bags. Coffee consumption in Peru has increased over one hundred percent in the past five years, however it still remains low. Per capita coffee consumption in Peru is 650 grams. This contrasts with neighboring Colombia, where per capita consumption reaches two kilograms, and Brazil, where it exceeds four kilograms.
Peruvians primarily consume soluble (instant) coffee, which accounts for 75 percent of total domestic coffee consumption. Nonetheless, consumption patterns are changing and a roasted, ground coffee drinking culture is taking root. Coffee consumption among young, urban consumers is growing.
Consumption levels are now reaching the one-kilogram per capita threshold in this demographic group. Domestic coffee consumption still only accounts for about 10 percent of total production. Small corner stores (60 percent) and supermarkets (30 percent) account for the bulk of domestic coffee sales.
© 2021 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
- Coffee
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Coffee
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10
August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7
August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.