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By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis, EMEA & Asia
Tel: +44 203 580 6115 / mobile +44 7384 833897
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion 7 July 2025
Gold still below $3,400 as the re appears to be progress un tariff talks and Mr. Netanyahu goes to Washington
Outlook: unchanged. The gold:silver ratio is narrowing slightly between 91 and 95; the possibility of progress over the Middle East works against gold but potentially helps silver. For the much longer-term silver has a robust fundamental outlook but for now it is stabilising around $36 with resistance at $37.74. As we noted last week, gold’s reactions to previously supportive developments had been increasingly guarded and the continued correction in milder conditions underpins our view that the high is in.
Comment
Bond markets still pricing in two cuts by year-end; Powerll may be softening slightly
Gold, one-year view; continuing to drift lower, increasingly muted reactions to financial fluctuations
Gold:dollar correlation; lower at 0.67
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Silver, one-year view; narrow ranges, based on either side of $36
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
COMEX gold inventories, tonnes
Source CME via Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold in key local currencies.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold:silver ratio, January 2024 to-date; support at 90
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Background
The latest CFTC report is that for 24th June. The previous week’s numbers were delayed as there had been a public holiday in the States. Over the period outright gold longs gained 12t to 521t then retreated to 510t; shorts gradually increased in both weeks, to 120t. Longs were 12% below the 52-week average while outright shorts are 20% above.
Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t) –
COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)
Source for both charts: CFTC, StoneX
ETF
Silver: The Bloomberg figures suggest that the net ETF creations in H1 2025 were 1,761t, of which 989t were in June. In other words, 56% of the net gains year-to-date have been in June. Looked at another way, on an unweighted annualised basis, June uptake would be equivalent to 11,864t, or the equivalent of five months’ silver mine production.
Gold: the latest figures from the World Gold Council, for the week to 20th June, show an increase of 16t globally, with small losses in Asia, but gains elsewhere, predominantly in North America. Split: North America, 1,847t; Europe, 1,355t; Asia. 315t; and other, 71t. The Bloomberg numbers (not as comprehensive as the WGC) suggest that the following ten trading days posted an overall increase of 18t, taking the total to roughly 387t for the year to date, to roughly 3,600t, which compares with world gold mine production of 3,661t (Metals Focus figures).
|
|
7 July 2025 |
Previous week |
% change |
Year-to-date |
Range Jan 2024 onwards |
|
Range as % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min |
Max |
|
|
Gold (pm LBMA price) |
3,331.90 |
3,271.75 |
1.84% |
25.91% |
1,985.10 |
3,435.35 |
73.06% |
|
Silver (LBMA price) |
36.89 |
35.98 |
2.52% |
25.42% |
22.09 |
37.16 |
68.24% |
|
Platinum (pm LBMA price) |
1,384.00 |
1,333.00 |
3.83% |
50.27% |
913.00 |
1,392.00 |
52.46% |
|
Palladium (pm LBMA price) |
1,130.00 |
1,119.00 |
0.98% |
22.69% |
852.00 |
1,222.00 |
43.43% |
|
S&P 500 |
6,279.35 |
6,141.02 |
2.25% |
6.31% |
4,688.68 |
6,279.35 |
33.93% |
|
$:€ |
1.1778 |
1.1718 |
0.51% |
13.16% |
1.0244 |
1.1806 |
15.25% |
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
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