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Precious Metals; talking point 071321: China trade robust, but growth continues to slow; auto sector still struggling.

By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis

 
Precious Metals Commentary; talking point
Rhona O’Connell | Head of Market Analysis, EMEA and Asia regions

 

China trade robust, but growth continues to slow; auto sector still struggling.

China’s June trade figures were released this morning.  Exports, which had previously been slowing as trade counterparties‘ economies have been reviving and becoming more self-sufficient, grew by 32% year-on-year and exports to the United States rose by 18% over June 2021, taking China’s trade surplus with the country to $32.6Bn, a gain of 11%.  President Biden has been implying that he wants relations with China to improve and there have been some overtures between the two nations, but no negotiations have yet taken place.

Meanwhile Capital Economics notes that electronics exports were strong and that this could imply the start of an easing in the microchip sector, although the shortage is not confined to the Chinese supply chain and some observers are suggesting that shortages could last for at least another year, if not two.  That said, the Chief Executive Office of Cisco said recently that the company is expecting the situation to start easing towards the end of this year as fresh capacity starts to feed into the supply chain.  In the United States, new car inventories are reported to have been down 54% last month against June 2019.

All of which points to continued stresses in the global vehicle market; we currently estimate that situation could shave some 200,000 ounces of platinum growth in the auto sector this year, and up to 400,000 ounces in palladium and potentially 50,000 ounces of rhodium.  As the sector struggles back to life, demand for all three metals will be higher this year than last, but not reach the levels of 2019.  We are currently estimating the global vehicle market to take up roughly 2.7M ounces of platinum this year and 8.4M ounces of palladium.

Global vehicle sales

image-20210713120605-1

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Meanwhile the investment bank UBS has modified its view on the dollar/yuan rate, arguing that a strengthening dollar and slower Chinese economic growth could put the yuan into a range of 6.40-6.55 against the dollar.  The average rate for the onshore yuan in the year to date has been 6.47, as is the prevailing spot rate; the bank is looking for this to be at 6.55 by year-end, which implies an effective fall of just 1%.

This of itself is clearly not a dramatic move, but it does highlight the slowing in China’s economic growth.  The consensus forecast for China GDP growth this year is 8.0%, with industrial production growing at 7.8%, which is still relatively healthy.  That said, the unexpected 50 basis point cut last week in the reserve requirement ratio suggests that the Government is on the alert for any further slowing; it is estimated that the cut will release the equivalent of $155Bn in the banking system, which should help overall liquidity and underpin economic growth, rather than acting as an outright stimulus after the PBoC has been so careful to try and take some of the steam out of the market and prevent the bursting of any bubbles.

The latest trade figures show a slowing in imports in June, reflecting the deceleration in growth, although they were still robust at +36.7% year-on-year.  Consumer spending is relatively lively, posting a year-on-year gain of 12.4%, although this outcome was below market expectations.

 

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