By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion
Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis, EMEA & Asia
Tel: +44 203 580 6115 / mobile +44 7384 833897
2nd February 2026
Precious snapshot
We wrote last week -
Herewith a very brief encapsulation of what has been happening
Main hook for the correction? Friday’s announcement of the nomination for Fed Chair. I don’t think the fact that it’s Kevin Warsh makes any difference, given that the Fed is a voting Board, not a one-man band. It could have been any-one, on that basis. The key here is that an important element of financial and political uncertainty has been removed from the equation. The changes to CME margins, applicable this evening, are financially prudent moves but are likely also to have played their part in market liquidation.
The upward momentum had been extended by technical trading and almost certainly option-hedging against both delta and gamma and this will also have contributed to the steepness of the fall. Silver is notorious for this kind of move - not for nothing have I used the term "Cinderella" for years, and "Icarus" in the past few weeks. The fundamentals in terms of underlying physical mine+scrap supply and industrial and decorative usage remain sound overall (but with the latter clearly suffering recently), with the market in a medium-to-long term deficit.
This latest move is obviously vicious and painful, but standing back and taking a longer-term view, it is shaking out a lot of the recent market noise and will hopefully lead to more cautious tones in the near future.
It also goes to show how fragile the market can be and we do not expect to see $100 regained at any point in the near future.
The CFTC numbers for the close of business on Tuesday 27th show that on COMEX at least, the silver Managed Money participants were ahead of the physical with outright longs contracting for the seventh week in succession, dropping from 39,798t to 20,613t over the period, while shorts fluctuated and stood most recently at 10,667t.
Gold outright longs, by contrast, had continued to nudge higher, adding 15t over the week to stand at 509t, still 12% below the 12-month rolling average; shorts were up seven tonnes to 82t.
Platinum sentiment has soured, with longs coming off and shorts expanding, taking the net long position to very nearly flat; palladium saw small contractions on both sides of the market to stand at a small net short.
Gold – next Fib level $4,225
Silver – next level $66
Pt – on the next level already at $1,954. Next level is $300 lower
Pd – almost there, $1,560.
Fresh Illustration of silver’s extreme price position.
It is instructive to look at silver on a log-chart rather than a linear scale (i.e. the y-axis is expressed in logarithmic terms so that each move is shown in proportion to other moves. Thus a $10 move off a base of $10 is 100%; $10 of a $100 base is 10%, etc). That latest move was very strong by any-one’s standards and should have been flashing warnings.
Log-chart of silver’s longer term price action; not quite as big as the ’78-’80 move – but very close – and see what happened back then!
Hunt Brothers, 2nd oil shock, Iran, Soviet/Afghan
Continued post-Lehman fallout, financial sector bankruptcies- gold carries silver
Strong investment activity, not least on intra-Fed disagreements post QE2
Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t) –
COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)
Source for both charts: CFTC, StoneX
The S&P, gold and the dollar; gold:S&P tighter at 0.46
Source; Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold, silver and copper; silver-gold 0.82; silver-copper, 0.56
Gold, one-year view; 50% retracement complete
Source; Bloomberg, StoneX
Silver March 2026-spot spread; flat
Source; Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold in key local currencies.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold:silver ratio, long-term; bottomed at 46, heading back towards 60
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
| 2 February 2026 | Previous week | % change | Jan 2025 onwards | Range as % | |||
| Min | Max | ||||||
| Gold (pm LBMA price) | 4,981.85 | 4,946.25 | 0.72% | 88.26% | 1,985.10 | 5,405.00 | 172.28% |
| Silver (LBMA price) | 103.19 | 99.00 | 4.23% | 250.87% | 22.09 | 118.45 | 436.34% |
| Platinum (pm LBMA price) | 2,300.00 | 2,705.00 | -14.97% | 149.73% | 1,302.00 | 2,811.00 | 115.90% |
| Palladium (pm LBMA price) | 1,820.00 | 1,976.00 | -7.89% | 97.61% | 852.00 | 2,106.00 | 147.18% |
| S&P 500 | 6,939.03 | 6,915.61 | 0.34% | 17.47% | 4,688.68 | 6,978.60 | 48.84% |
| $:€ | 1.1851 | 1.1828 | 0.19% | 13.86% | 1.0244 | 1.2041 | 17.54% |
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A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
Gold remains under pressure from a resurgent U.S. dollar, but several market indicators suggest bearish momentum may be losing force. While currency strength continues to weigh on precious metals, positioning and sentiment data point to a more balanced outlook than recent price action alone would suggest.
Politics, economic, geopolitics and investor sentiment
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