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By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
The Swiss March trade in platinum and palladium; industrial implications
The Swiss March trade in platinum and palladium; industrial implications
The Swiss trade statistics for March were released this morning. The stand-out numbers were very strong exports of palladium into the United States, after over five years of net imports from that country, and heavy exports of platinum into China.
Palladium (and comments about Neon with respect to semiconductors)
The countries that we track are producers South Africa and Russia, consumers Germany and China (plus Hong Kong) and terminal market the United Kingdom. The big change was the net export of 1,229kg into the United States, which reflects not only an improvement in industrial activity but also suggests collateral interest in material in Switzerland in case the Russian PGM producers do come under direct sanction. Thus far they have not but do remember that the CME followed the LPPM in suspending PGM brands from Krastvetmet and Prioksky on 8th April. The numbers back up anecdotal market indications of fresh interest in palladium, especially with sponge (the primary raw material for industrial usage) moving to a substantial premium in the United States. It is also widely accepted that the major U.S. auto manufacturers have been operating on a hand-to-mouth basis, which has been exacerbated by the dislocation in the semiconductor supply chains.
While there had been signs of these dislocations starting to ease, the importance of Ukraine in the neon market must not be underestimated; the country supplies an estimated 50% of global neon production and Reuters has reported that two Ukrainian companies, Ingas (located in Mariupol) and Cryoin (in Odessa), have suspended production. Major chip manufacturers have reasonably high levels of feedstock, believed to be of the order of roughly two months’ supply.
Germany and the United States; net imports of palladium from Switzerland (negative numbers; exports to Switzerland)
Source: Swiss Federal Customs Administration; StoneX
On balance, therefore, the US auto sector is still navigating choppy waters, btu this substantial import is likely to reflect early purchasing, defensive measures due to the war and is likely to be related in the electronics sector also.
The other key change was vastly expanded imports of palladium from Germany – although exports to that country were also elevated. The upshot was a net import of 304kg, after four months of small net exports to Germany. The latest figures for German vehicle sales show a rising trend, with March sales the highest since July last year. First quarter vehicle sales were down 5% against Q1 2021, but 11% below Q1 2020 and 29% below Q1 2019. The two-way trade between Germany and Switzerland last month may well suggest offloading by one or more organisations, but fresh interest elsewhere. April’s numbers will give us a clearer idea.
Platinum
Switzerland’s reported exports of platinum into China will be driven by the auto sector, in which China VI emissions limits for diesel are still being phased in, through to 2023, and which are designed to reduce non-methane hydrocarbon emissions by 71%; almost certainly also reflecting some industrial interest despite lockdowns and slowing industrial growth. Net exports to China from Switzerland in 2020 were 563kg; last month alone they were 509kg. A more accurate assessment needs the Hong Kong numbers as well, however.
China and Hong Kong; net imports of platinum from Switzerland (negative numbers; exports to Switzerland)
Source: Swiss Federal Customs Administration; StoneX
In 2018, China and Hong Kong between them were net importers of 3.7t of platinum from Switzerland; in 2019 it was 2.9t, in 2020, 2.3t; and last year they were net exporters of 1.2t as economic growth slowed.
Germany was also a net importer in March, for the second consecutive month after net imports into Switzerland of 302kg in 2021 and a hefty 3.3 tonnes in 2020. Pre-pandemic, in 2019, Germany imported 657kg of platinum from Switzerland.
So it does look, especially with the two-way palladium trade, as if the German market is becoming more vibrant, especially when we look at the trend in auto sales.
We are expecting platinum to post a surplus in the region of ten weeks’ global demand this year, and palladium to be in a small surplus of roughly three weeks’ demand.
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