Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion 17 July 2023
Welcome to our newly re-branded entity ”StoneX Bullion”, which replaces the previous “CoinInvest” brand and which went live this weekend. This ties in with our very successful US franchise and thus gives a seamless global product brand within the precious metals markets.
The website is
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion 17 July 2023
Welcome to our newly re-branded entity ”StoneX Bullion”, which replaces the previous “CoinInvest” brand and which went live this weekend. This ties in with our very successful US franchise and thus gives a seamless global product brand within the precious metals markets.
The website is
Gold and silver were both steady at the start of last week as the markets absorbed the employment numbers at the end of the previous week, and which were weaker than the markets had been expecting. Focus soon switched to the inflation figures coming from the United States on Thursday and Friday. These were generally in line with, or lower than, expectations and while the numbers are still too high for the Fed’s satisfaction, they are moving in the right direction and some gentle breezes blew through the markets accordingly. Some observers are now suggesting that there may only be one more rate hike in the offing. This may be over-optimistic and raises the possibility of disappointment further down the line, which would be bearish for gold and, by association, silver. In the immediate term, though, the results saw gold lift from its prior range of $1,910-$1,930, and rally towards $1,960. It has now pushed above the ten-day, 20-day and 50-day moving averages, having had a tussle with them at the end of the week, but ultimately breaking upwards. These averages should, in theory, support prices between $1,952 and $1,957, but the position is still slightly tenuous and more consolidation is needed.
Silver’s technical position is slightly stronger, with the ten-day average now above the 20-day and the 50-day after spot prices followed gold higher, pulling away from $23 to test resistance at $25. There is a band of resistance between $25 and $26, so silver also needs to consolidate. Gold’s gain last week was just 0.5% and it now has to cope with resistance at $1,960 while that of silver was 7.5% and the ratio between the two has now dropped to 78, a level last seen in mid-January.
The US inflation numbers saw the Producer Price index steady at +0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, while the consumer price index was marginally below expectations at 0.2$% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year. The core CPI, which the Fed tends to prefer to monitor, was 4.8% against a survey consensus expectation of 5.0%, illustrating how the drop in energy prices has fed through to the baseline inflation numbers(see chart below).
West Texas Intermediate crude and gasoline
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
The bond markets are now pricing in a July hike, but only a 12% chance of a further hike in September.
In the background last Friday saw the first increase in gold ETP holdings since mid-June and only the second increase since late May. It is far too early to suggest a change in trend, but the bargain hunting at lower prices has cushioned the price fall and it is possible that this has fed through and encouraged some light fresh interest. Among the Money Managers on COMEX the change in sentiment is more marked, with a 46t (14%) increase in outright longs, but also a four tonne increase in the outright shorts, taking the net long to 259t. At 389t the outright longs are 51t or 15% higher than the 12-month average. This change was prior to the rally towards $1,960 so next week’s numbers will be instructive as to whether there was further long interest, short-covering, or some profit taking. Or all three!
Gold technical and dollar relationship, year to date
Source: Bloomberg
In the silver market the sentiment was much more cautious, with continued long liquidation and additional shorts, taking the outright longs down by just 1% to 5,281t, the lowest since late March and 15% below the twelve-month average. Shorts increased again by 114t or 3% to take the net long to 1,575t. The size of the rally later in the week strongly suggests short covering.
In the retail market we noted previously that coin sales were losing momentum and that premia had contracted sharply; this is illustrated by the latest figures from the U.S. Mint, which show that the first half of the month saw gold Eagle sales running at roughly 65% of the rate in June and 60% of the monthly average for the first half-year. Silver Eagle sales are much better, though, running at roughly the same rate as gold, with the first half of July at ~64% of June but only 52% that of the first half-year.
Spot silver, technical, year-to-date
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
| 17 July 2023 | Previous week | % change | Year-to-date | Range Jan 2022 onwards | Range as % | ||
| Min | Max | ||||||
| Gold (pm LBMA price) | 1,953.70 | 1,922.30 | 1.63% | 5.99% | 1,628.75 | 2,048.45 | 25.77% |
| Silver (LBMA price) | 24.77 | 22.72 | 9.05% | -0.50% | 17.77 | 26.03 | 46.45% |
| Platinum (pm LBMA price) | 977.00 | 907.00 | 7.72% | -9.70% | 838.00 | 1,128.00 | 34.61% |
| Palladium (pm LBMA price) | 1,267.00 | 1,239.00 | 2.26% | -29.42% | 1,200.00 | 2,315.00 | 92.92% |
| S&P 500 | 4,505.42 | 4,398.95 | 2.42% | 17.82% | 3,577.03 | 4,510.04 | 26.08% |
| $:€ | 1.1228 | 1.0967 | 2.38% | 5.26% | 0.9594 | 1.1228 | 17.03% |
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Platinum and palladium may sit in the precious metals family, but their biggest moves often come from industrial demand rather than safe-haven flows. Understanding that split explains why the two metals led the wider metals complex higher while gold and silver waited on very different news.
Gold has surged into a decade-long trendline, and the next U.S. CPI report now looms as the catalyst that could decide its direction. A hotter inflation print risks tipping an overbought market into a pullback, while a softer one could reopen the path toward record highs.
Nonfam weakness boosts metals
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
