Below are the summaries straight from the report:
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CORN
-This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks.
-Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 70 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21, with reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports.
-Corn production for 2021/22 is forecast at 15.0 billion bushels, up 246 million from last month on increases to harvested area and yield.
-The national average yield is forecast at 176.3 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels, while harvested area for grain is forecast at 85.1 million acres, up 0.6 million.
-Total U.S. corn use for 2021/22 is up 150 million bushels to 14.8 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices.
-Exports for 2021/22 are up 75 million bushels to 2.5 billion. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are increased 166 million bushels to 1.4 billion.
-The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents to $5.45 per bushel.
-For China, corn feed and residual use for 2020/21 is lowered based on indicated soybean meal equivalent protein consumption and expanded use of alternative energy feedstuffs such as barley and sorghum.
-For 2021/22, feed and residual use is raised based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected internal market prices. Food, seed and industrial use is lowered for 2020/21 and 2021/22 based on a reduction in the expected amount of corn used for ethanol and corn product exports. Despite a forecast increase in corn production, imports are unchanged for 2021/22 as the gap between China’s domestic and international corn prices is expected to persist, particularly in the feed deficit South.
SOYBEANS /Oilseeds
-U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, ending stocks, and lower crush.
-Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21.
-Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 35 million with lower harvested area more than offset by a higher yield forecast of 50.6 bushels per acre.
-Harvested area is down 0.3 million from the August forecast.
-Soybean crush is reduced 25 million bushels reflecting a lower forecast for domestic soybean meal disappearance.
-The soybean export forecast is raised 35 million bushels on increased supplies and lower prices. Ending stocks are projected at 185 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.
-The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, down 80 cents. The soybean meal price is forecast at $360 per short ton, down 25 dollars.
- Higher beginning stocks for China and higher U.S. ending stocks account for most of the global 2021/22 soybean ending stocks increase, which are raised 2.7 million tons to 98.9 million. Another notable oilseed change includes higher soybean meal imports for India as the government allows shipments of soybean meal made from genetically modified soybeans through October 31.
WHEAT
-The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks.
-Supplies are reduced as imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million on the import pace.
-Food use is raised 2 million bushels to 964 million, reflecting an upward revision of 2020/21 food use. Exports are unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes.
-Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in eight years.
-The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.60 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.
-The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for increased supplies, higher consumption, more trade, and higher ending stocks.
-Supplies are projected rising by 7.1 million tons to 1,072.8 million, on the combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, EU, and India and higher production for Australia, India, and China. Australia’s production is raised 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million on continued widespread favorable conditions to date. This would be Australia’s third largest wheat crop on record.
-China’s production is increased 900,000 tons to 136.9 million, mainly on a higher area estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics. Partially offsetting these increases, Canadian production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million, based on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 30, and Argentina is reduced 500,000 tons to 20.0 million on dry conditions. Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 3.0 million tons to 789.6 million. Most of the higher consumption is for feed and residual use, led by China, increasing by 1.0 million tons to 36.0 million.
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