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Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Corn Begins the Year with a Slight Increase in Chicago as the Market Awaits the New WASDE Report

  • Bullish
  • Strong global consumption;
  • USDA projects lower global stocks for the 2025/26 crop;
  • Exports remain robust in the United States;
  • Outlook points to reduced planted area in the U.S. for 2026;
  • Bearish
  • Increase in planted area for 2025/26 in Brazil;
  • Higher ending stocks in the United States;
  • Possibility of a negative revision in U.S. corn consumption.

CBOT

Wishing you a happy and prosperous 2026!

Corn futures contracts wrapped up the first week of the year with a slight increase on the CBOT. March/26 closed last Friday trading at US¢445.75/bu (+1.9%).

Intraday (15 min) March/26 Contract - CBOT

image 124946

Source: CBOT. Prepared by: StoneX.

In recent weeks, the USDA completed the publication of export sales data that had been delayed due to last year’s U.S. government shutdown. Corn export sales maintained strong momentum, reinforcing expectations of record shipments for the 2025/26 season.

Currently, sales support a potential positive revision in exports by the USDA. However, there is still significant uncertainty regarding the balance sheet that will be released today (01/12) in the afternoon, as part of the WASDE report.

A reduction in American crop yields is widely anticipated. However, this possible cut is expected to be accompanied by a decrease in domestic consumption figures, both for feed and, to a lesser extent, ethanol production. Market participants will rely on quarterly stock data to support these revisions.

Overall, this new report will be the key focus of the week. While a consumption cut could be bearish for corn, there remains significant uncertainty about what this will ultimately mean for U.S. carryout.

Brazil

Corn prices on the B3 ended the week slightly lower, with the March/26 contract closing last week at R$72.89 per bag (-1.6%).

Intraday (15 min) March/26 Contract - B3

image 124947

Source: B3. Prepared by: StoneX.

StoneX revised its projections for the 2025/26 corn crop. The main adjustment was made to yield expectations for the first corn crop in the state of Santa Catarina. Expectations for second-crop corn production remain at 105.8 million tonnes, with total production projected at 134.4 million tonnes.

Corn exports in 2025 closed the year at nearly 41 million tonnes. Expectations for January 2026 are positive: ANEC estimates first-week exports at 1.25 million tonnes, raising the possibility of surpassing January 2025, when total exports reached 3.6 million tonnes. This trend is further reinforced by improved competitiveness of Brazilian corn compared to Argentina’s, which is currently one of the most expensive in the world, as well as U.S. corn at the time of writing. As such, the prospects for tighter supply in the first half of the year are strengthening.

Argentina

Corn crop conditions in Argentina have deteriorated. After reaching 87% of crops in good/excellent condition in mid-December, last week’s update from the Bolsa de Cereales indicated that 75% of the area remains in the optimal category. Despite the decline in recent weeks, this level is still above the average of recent years.

As such, with expanded planted acreage and productivity that, so far, appears promising, Argentina’s crop (which will begin harvesting around February) is expected to grow. Coupled with a reduction in export taxes from 9.5% to 8.5%, announced by the government in December, the country may become a highly competitive export origin this year.

Futures Contracts Traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)

image 124948

Source: CME. Prepared by: StoneX.

Futures Contracts Traded on B3 (R$/sc)

image 124949image-20250902142429-4

Source: B3. Prepared by: StoneX.

Spot Prices in Brazil (USD/60kg bag)

image 124950image-20250902142435-5

Source: StoneX.

INDICATORS 

 
  • Grains & Oilseeds

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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