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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 3

November 3 – It’s election day in the U.S., with the corresponding geopolitical uncertainty looking to drive a day of volatile, headline-driven trade. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open, with the Nasdaq hoping to find some turnaround Tuesday action to stop the bleeding from the recent selloff that has battered the tech sector and drove the index to its lowest close since late July yesterday. The VIX is off its overnight highs but remains elevated, hovering near 20.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is effectively unchanged to start the day, trading at 101.82. Treasury yields are quietly higher after their recent slide that has coincided with the selloff in the equities, particularly tech, potentially signaling some investors fleeing to safe havens, with 2-year yields at 4.585%, 10-year yields at 4.919%, and 30-year yields at 5.294% this morning. Meanwhile, the ags are mostly lower at the break.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Precious Metals StoneX 110326; Deep dive into US mid-terms; scenario analysis

Potential key changes if the Democrats take both Chambers

Rhona O'Connell
Rhona O'Connell
  • Precious Metals

Bank and Crypto Regulation Meets Gridlock in a Split Congress

Bank and crypto regulation rides on which party controls Congress after the U.S. midterm elections. A split between a Democratic House and a Republican Senate points to gridlock that keeps tighter rules on banks, crypto and tech stocks on hold.

Fiona Cincotta
Fiona Cincotta
  • Digital Assets

Bank and Crypto Regulation Meets Gridlock in a Split Congress

Bank and crypto regulation rides on which party controls Congress after the U.S. midterm elections. A split between a Democratic House and a Republican Senate points to gridlock that keeps tighter rules on banks, crypto and tech stocks on hold.

Fiona Cincotta
Fiona Cincotta
  • Digital Assets

What Fed Independence Means for Gold When Congress Changes Hands

A change in control of Congress reshapes the political agenda in Washington, yet Federal Reserve policy decisions stay with the central bank's own committee. That separation explains why gold takes its cues from Fed guidance more than from election results.

Rhona O'Connell
Rhona O'Connell
  • Precious Metals

Oil Risk Premium Falls on Words While Markets Wait for a Peace Deal

Diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran are stripping the risk premium out of crude after a month of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets still want concrete signs of peace, and WTI crude's uptrend since July remains in place through the pullback.

Fiona Cincotta
Fiona Cincotta
  • Energy

Daily Coffee Report 11/2/26

Daily coffee report

StoneX Coffee Team
StoneX Coffee Team
  • Coffee

CME Cash Market Summary

Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

Dairy Team - Chicago
Dairy Team - Chicago
  • Dairy

How 10-Year Treasury Yields Shape Risk-On and Risk-Off Sentiment

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are holding at a key support level that sits between a broad risk-on reversal and a deeper risk-off move. Inflation concerns and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations keep yields supported, and that support keeps a lid on risk appetite across markets.

Razan Hilal
Razan Hilal
  • Fixed Income

Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 2

November 2 – Stocks are looking to bounce back after Friday’s ugly selloff, with the tech heavy Nasdaq showing the sharpest gains after posting the sharpest losses last week. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month high on Friday but has reversed course sharply since, down another 2% to start the day near the 19 level. The dollar touched a one-month low overnight but has recovered since, currently hovering near 101.61. Treasury yields are notably mixed to kick off the week, with 2-year yields up 2-basis points to sit at 4.60%, while 10-year yields are down over 2-basis points to sit at 4.905%, and 30-year yields are down nearly 4-basis points to trade at 5.272%. The ags are largely mixed at the break, with corn and wheat clinging to small gains while soybeans show small losses. It will be interesting to see if more strength will be seen at the open after a massive 1.730 million metric ton (68.1 million bushel) flash sale of U.S. corn to Mexico was just announced, as well as another 136k metric tons (5.0 million bushels) of soybeans to China. Amid the sharp break lower in prices, these are the kind of signals these markets need to see to stop the bleeding.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Precious Metals StoneX Bullion weekly round-up 110226; Persistently sour sentiment, but some bargain hunting

Fed is read as hiking in December; AI rout pulls gold down, and silver with it. Fresh long-term lows

Rhona O'Connell
Rhona O'Connell
  • Precious Metals

What a Yen Carry Trade Unwind Means for Nasdaq and Nikkei Stocks

A yen carry trade unwind can hit stocks far harder than the currency itself, as borrowed money from Japan rushes out of global markets. The Nikkei and the Nasdaq show how cheap Bank of Japan funding turned into leverage, and what halted the selling.

James Stanley
James Stanley
  • Currencies

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Upcoming events

November 03

NAGGL Annual Conference

Third party events|North America|Language: English

November 03 - November 05, 2026

San Diego, CA

StoneX Financial Inc.’s Fixed Income division will participate as an Experience Partner and Padfolio Sponsor at the 2026 NAGGL Annual Conference in San Diego. Visit Booth 32 to discuss SBA Loans and Pools, USDA Loans and 504 services with the StoneX team. With an SBA 7(a) Loan Pool Assembler license, StoneX helps aggregate individual SBA 7(a) loans into pooled securities, supporting liquidity in the SBA market and helping lenders reinvest capital.

Learn More

November 03

Asamblea Anual de FELABAN

Third party events|South America|Language: English

November 03 - November 06, 2026

Lima, Perú

Los líderes bancarios y financieros de toda América Latina se reunirán en la Asamblea Anual de FELABAN, y StoneX se enorgullece de ser parte de la conversación.

Como evento recurrente de la industria, FELABAN ofrece una oportunidad para conectarse con clientes, prospectos y colegas, mientras se exploran las tendencias que están dando forma al futuro de los servicios financieros y los pagos en toda la región.

Esperamos interactuar con los asistentes durante todo el evento y fortalecer las relaciones dentro de la comunidad bancaria latinoamericana.

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November 04

ADPI Dairy Purchasing & Risk Management Seminar

Third party events|North America|Language: English

November 04 - November 05, 2026

Chicago, IL

StoneX is proud to be a Gold Sponsor of the ADPI Dairy Purchasing & Risk Management Seminar.

Join industry professionals in Chicago on November 4-5 for discussions on dairy markets, risk management strategies, and the key factors shaping the industry's outlook.

We look forward to connecting with clients, prospects, and peers and sharing insights on today's evolving dairy landscape.

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