Last week brought mixed results for coffee prices in the major exchanges. In New York, prices saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with the March contract closing at US¢ 357.65/lb. However, it’s worth noting that other maturities recorded minor weekly declines. While low certified stock levels and Brazil’s weather conditions continue to raise some concerns, market participants monitored Colombia’s export data, while weighing the risks of escalating tensions between the US government and South American governments.
Meanwhile, robusta coffee saw a 1.3% decline in the London exchange, with the March contract closing at USD 3,903/t. Generally, increased supply from Vietnam following the acceleration of harvesting in December, as confirmed by strong December export data, acted as the main pressure factor.
This Monday (12)
Starting off the week, arabica coffee extended the decline observed during last Friday’s (12) trading session, with the market undergoing corrections after reaching three-week highs last Wednesday (7). The March contract closed at US¢ 356.05/lb with a daily drop of 0.45%.
Meanwhile, robusta coffee sought recovery amid slower activity in the Asian market. The March contract advanced 0.2%, closing at USD 3,917/t.
Colombia - December Exports and US Tensions
The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation released December production and export data, showing weaker monthly results but divergences in the annual consolidated figures.
- Production for December totaled 1.23 million bags, marking decreases of 2.8% and 31.6% compared to the previous month and December 2024, respectively.
- On an annual basis, 2025 had been outperforming 2024 until November, but weaker results since October reversed this trend by year-end: The 13.67 million bags produced in 2025 were 2.3% lower than the 13.99 million bags in 2024.
- Exports dropped by 14.7% in December to 1.04 million bags, down 20% compared to the same month of the previous year.
- However, for the year as a whole, the country shipped 13.1 million bags, a volume 6.5% higher than in 2024.
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Monthly Coffee Production in Colombia (millions of bags)
Source: FNC. Prepared by StoneX.
Political Tensions Remain on the Radar
Following the US operation that led to the arrest of Venezuela’s president, American President Donald Trump’s attacks and threats against Colombia—including the possibility of military action in the country and accusations that Gustavo Petro is a “narco-terrorist”—remain a potential source of volatility in the coffee market.
However, the situation was partially eased after news of a phone call between the two presidents last Wednesday (7). On Friday (9), Trump announced that he would meet Petro in person at the White House during the first week of February.
Why this matters: Colombia is the second-largest coffee supplier to the United States, averaging 4.3 million bags annually, trailing only Brazil. A potential escalation of the conflict, with sanctions or higher tariffs, could drive prices upward—a scenario similar to what occurred starting in August, when 50% tariffs were imposed on Brazilian coffee imports.
Vietnam – Strong December Exports Reflect Robust Performance of New Harvest
In Vietnam, the Customs Department released December coffee export results last week.
- Exports totaled 3.05 million bags, a volume 106% higher than the 1.67 million bags shipped the previous month and 43% higher compared to December 2024.
- For the fiscal year 2025, strong results were recorded, with total exports reaching 26.5 million bags, an increase of 18% compared to 2024.
- Revenue, meanwhile, saw an even greater jump. The figure reached USD 8.9 billion, up 59% year-over-year, equating to an average value of USD 336/bag or USD 5,600/ton.
2025/26 Season
Looking at the crop year (Oct-Sep), December’s results reaffirm expectations of improved performance in 2025/26.
- Following concerns over heavy rains in November that delayed fieldwork and impacted logistics and quality in some cases, December’s outcome brought greater confidence to the market regarding a more comfortable supply outlook for 2026.
- With October and December performances surpassing the three-year average, the accumulated exports for the first three months of the season already total 5.66 million bags, a 44% increase compared to the same period in 2024/25.
Monthly Coffee Exports from Vietnam (millions of bags)
Source: Vietnam Customs Department. Prepared by StoneX.
Outlook and Lunar New Year Expectations
Last week, however, there were reports of farmers reducing negotiated volumes while awaiting better prices, which could act as a short-term support factor.
Nonetheless, it’s important to note that, besides high volumes due to the harvest period, the approaching Lunar New Year holiday in the country, occurring from February 14–22, is expected to increase supply. Traditionally, producers tend to sell larger volumes in the weeks leading up to the holiday to fund festivities. As such, late January and early February may see additional pressure on robusta coffee prices.
Upcoming Days
Weather conditions in Brazil remain on the radar. The latest weekly weather and climate bulletin indicated that certain coffee-growing regions, such as Cerrado, Matas de Minas, and parts of Espírito Santo, may experience January rains concentrated in the first two weeks, along with some heatwaves, requiring monitoring for the second half of the month.
Additionally, Cecafé is expected to release Brazilian coffee export data for December. Preliminary figures shared by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), considered indicative by the market, pointed to a 4.2% increase in December shipments, reaching approximately 3.5 million bags.
INDICATOR TABLE
Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.
