Soybean Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 30 Aug 2021, 14:49

Soybean oil and US sales to China support Chicago quotes

Ana Luiza Lodi

STILL, US export sales fall short of the same period last year

Soybean quotes in Chicago ended the first session of the week with a slight upward trend influenced by good rainfall prospects in the US Midwest over the next 10 days and by the recovery of soybean oil.

US export inspections in the week ended on August 19 reached 104,000 tonnes, below last year (334,000 tonnes) and lower than the weekly rate required to meet the USDA estimate of 61.5 million tonnes for the 2020/21 crop. Accumulated shipments total 59.96 million tonnes, with less than two weeks left until the end of the crop-year.

Late in the afternoon, the USDA progress report for the US crop updated the good/excellent percentage to 56%, down 1 point and in line with market expectations, but 9 points below the average for this period of the year. It is noted that as the month of August ends, the weather will no longer have a great influence on yields. Even so, the numbers can still undergo major changes.

Weekly Intraday - November/21 (CME)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Tuesday saw a rally for soybean prices on the CBOT, boosted by soybean oil gains and amid rumors of China purchasing between four and six cargoes. The USDA reported sales of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to the Asian country on the day. Even so, sales are weak compared to the same period of other years, but there is expectation that they could gain strength as crushing margins are positive in China.

On Wednesday, soybean ended the session slightly higher. Once again, there was influence from soybean oil gains, with the market expecting demand for the biofuel to remain strong. On the other hand, soybean meal dropped lower, which weighed on the grain’s prices.

On Thursday, the downward trend predominated for soybeans, except in the September/21 contract, already influenced by its close expiration and lower volume. Positions were liquidated in the soybean oil market amid rumors that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has delivered recommendation for US biofuel mandates to the White House.

In addition, Indonesia announced that it will delay the change from B30 to B40 in the country given high palm oil prices.

As for the weather, rains over the northwest of the US grain belt and new forecasts also helped soybean lower.

The USDA announced sales of 133,000 tonnes of soybean to China and another 132,000 tonnes to unknown destinations. US export sales in the week ended on August 19 reached 75,100 tonnes for the 2020/21 crop and 1.75 million tonnes for 2021/22, which was within market expectations.

Weekly US export sales - 2021/22

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

New crop sales are weaker than in the same period last year, with China representing almost all of this difference. In accumulated terms, 6.6 million tonnes have been negotiated with China, compared to 12.5 million tonnes in the same period of 2020.

Friday saw strong volatility, especially in the SUSX spread, amid concerns about hurricane Ida in the US.

Another announcement was made of export sales to China for the US 2021/22 crop, totaling 129,000 tonnes.

Furthermore, forecasts of a wet weather in the US continued to weigh on soybean prices. Good rainfall was seen in drier regions of Iowa and Minnesota, which can be beneficial for crop yields.

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

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Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

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