Soybean Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 13 Sep 2021, 15:04

Soybean ends week near stability following recovery after WASDE

Ana Luiza Lodi

MARKET WAS PREPARED FOR AN EVEN MORE BEARISH REPORT, BUT US ACREAGE CUT WAS A SURPRISE

Soybean quotes n Chicago started last week lower as the market already prepared for the monthly USDA supply and demand report, which was released on Friday (10). The week was shorter due to the US holiday on Monday.

Expectations for the report pointed to an increase in US productivity for 2021/22, with unchanged planted area. Furthermore, for the 2020/21 crop, stocks were expected to remain unchanged, even with doubts on the domestic consumption side.

The US export inspections in the week ended September 02 showed shipments of 50,000 tonnes for 2020/21 and 190,000 tonnes for 2021/22, also fueling the prospects that the USDA could end up adjusting 2020/21 exports down. Late September will bring final stock numbers for the crop at the end of August, also consolidating consumption data.

Late in the afternoon, the USDA crop progress report came in line with market expectations, with a 1-point increase in the excellent/good percentage of US crops, to 57%, compared to an average of 64% for the period.

Weekly Intraday - November/21 (CME)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

On Wednesday, soybean prices oscillated in the positive and negative fields, with the market following the final development of the US crop and adjusting positions before the USDA supply and demand report (WASDE). The USDA announced sales of 106,000 tonnes of 2021/22 soybean to China.

Thursday was, in general, a bearish session for soybean, under the influence of the oil share movement and with the market betting that the WASDE report could surprise, bringing even more bearish data.

Conab updated the figures for the 2020/21 crop in Brazil, but brought a marginal adjustment for production, which stood at 135.9 million tonnes. The Rosario exchange also revised the numbers for the Argentine crop to 48.8 million tonnes for 2021/22, 200,000 less than the previous estimate, due to planted area revisions.

Friday was a day of rally for soybean on the CBOT, after the USDA supply and demand report brought a decrease in US area. Although the decrease was small and productivity increased to 3.4 tonnes per hectare, more than offsetting the acreage drop and leading production to around 119 million tonnes, the market was oversold before the figures, which opened space for the day’s move higher.

With this larger production, the US final 2021/22 stocks estimate was increased to 5 million tonnes, even with the positive adjustment on exports to 56.88 million tonnes. On the other hand, there was a decline in crushing, in addition to initial stocks being slightly risen after demand adjustments for the 2020/21 crop.

For Brazil, 2020/21 exports were reduced by 500,000 tonnes to 82 million, while Argentine shipments increased to 5.2 million tonnes.

For China, the USDA increased imports from the 2020/21 cycle to 99 million tonnes, following the cuts in the last few reports.

US export sales in the week ended September 02 were also reported, which came above expectations, but below one year ago. 1.47 million tonnes of the 2021/22 crop were traded.

Weekly US export sales - 2021/22

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

BRAZIL

UNITED STATES

CHINA AND EU

Grains & Oilseeds

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