Soybean Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 17 Apr 2023, 17:53

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Soybean prices hold steady after a week of minor fluctuations

Ana Luiza Lodi

analuiza.lodi@stonex.com

Market focuses on demand progress even with Argentine crop cuts

Bearish drivers

Estimated global production for 2022/23 above consumption, according to USDA;
Combating inflation may lead to a recession;
Possibility of an absolute production record in Brazil;
Signs of economic slowdown in China and and increased outbreaks of ASF;
Agricultural Forum shows production growth for 2023/24 in the US.

Bullish drivers

Relaxation of anti-Covid measures in China;
Considerable crop losses in Argentina due to the climate;
US 23/24 crop area not expected to grow and stocks in March 1 indicate strong use;
Increase in mandatory biodiesel blending in Brazil, starting in April 2023.

Last week, the soybean market did not register large fluctuations and ended the period around stability, even with major releases, such as the USDA monthly supply and demand report. The May/23 contract closed on Friday (14) at 1500.5 cents per bushel.

Regarding the USDA report, there was no change in the US supply and demand balance, even after March 1st quarterly stocks position report indicated a lower available volume, which should result in a 2022/23 production cut in a future review.

For South America, the USDA increased Brazilian production to 154 million tonnes, 1 million more than announced in March, while bringing a significant cut in 2022/23 Argentine production, which went from 33 to 27 million tonnes, a reduction greater than expected, but still above the 25 million estimated by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) and the Rosario Stock Exchange, which announced on Wednesday (12) another reduction in the country's soybean production, leaving it at just 23 million tonnes. It is also noteworthy that the BCBA stressed that further cuts in its production number may occur, since the yields reported at the beginning of the harvest are lower than expected.

Even with the cut in Argentine production reducing world soybean production, the USDA kept estimated ending stocks practically unchanged at 100.3 million tonnes, promoting a similar reduction in world use. With that, the USDA may be expecting some rationing on the demand side (keeping in mind that the US balance sheet is not comfortable and, for the time being, no growth in planted area is expected) or a weaker advance in consumption as a whole, in this post-COVID period. After years of sharp growth in the use of soybeans in the world, more recently there are concerns on the consumption side, which has pressured prices, even if estimates do not indicate a comfortable global balance.

Weekly intraday - May/23 (CME)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

In this context, the Chinese situation is closely monitored. The country has shown signs of economic slowdown, soybean crushing margins have been in the red, the recent outbreaks of African swine fever should impact the meat supply in the second half and there is an effort led by the government to reduce the participation of soybean meal in feed. The objective is to reduce the average rate of meal in animal feed from 14.5% to 13% by 2025. In any case, if this reduction is achieved, it does not mean that the total Chinese consumption of soybean and meal will drop, as meat production is expected to grow over the years. However, there would be a trend towards a more moderate increase in soybean and meal consumption.

Still on the demand side, US export sales for the week ended April 06 were 364,500 tonnes, a volume closer to the floor of market estimates, which ranged from 250,000 to 600,000. In accumulated terms, 50.3 million tonnes of 2022/23 soybeans were traded, against 56.6 million in the same period last year. It should be noted that sales to China are 1.8 million tonnes ahead of last year, but sales to other destinations are 8.2 million tonnes weaker.

US weekly export sales (000 tonnes)

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

At the moment, the export market is focused on Brazil, which is ending the harvest of a record crop, a situation that has pressured the domestic basis, amid concerns about logistics and storage. So far, ship lineup data indicate that exports in April could reach 13.5 million tonnes, with China focusing its origination on the country.

Regarding the Brazilian crop, the 2022/23 soybean harvest reached 88.3% of the total last Friday (14), according to StoneX's survey. As a result, the national supply is very significant, noting that Conab increased its soybean production estimate to 153.4 million tonnes, more than 2 million tonnes above what was announced in March, but still below the latest StoneX number, at 157.7 million.

It should be noted, however, that even if Brazilian overproduction almost completely compensates for the Argentine drop, there are still doubts about how the world balance will adjust. The expectation is that Argentina will import significant volumes of soybean from Brazil, but even so, the exported volumes of meal and oil from the country should retreat. With that, there would be a space to be occupied in the world trade of meal and oil and Brazil would be the obvious option, as it has idle crushing capacity. The US has prospects of increasing soybean crushing capacity in the coming years, but it is currently at the limit.

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

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