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StoneX Commodities Outlook - 2026

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StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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October 30 – Intel is officially seeing its sharpest one-day drop on record, with its stock currently down nearly 29% as the selling pressure in the tech sector intensifies amid renewed fears of the surging costs associated with the ongoing AI buildout. That selling pressure has spread across global chip stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) down nearly 7% at the time of writing. A good share of this weakness is likely more of a rotation of money out of tech and into other sectors, however, with the tech heavy Nasdaq seeing the biggest weakness as it falls over 3% on the day to reach its lowest level since early August, though the S&P 500 is down a more modest 1.5% to trade at a roughly six-week low, while the Dow Jones is down only 0.7%, back to where it was trading early last week. The VIX is surging in turn, up over 14% on the day to carve out a new high for the week, currently hovering near 19.7 at midday. The dollar has had a volatile session but now sits up 0.1% on the day to trade at 101.95. Treasury yields remain lower at midday, perhaps reflecting some money leaving the equities space and looking for safe havens, with 2-year yields off 4-basis points to trade at 4.614%, 10-year yields off 3-basis points to trade at 4.956%, and 30-year yields just below unchanged to sit at 5.326%. Crude oil is looking to end the week on a strong note as we head into the weekend market closure with fears of Middle East escalation lingering as Tuesday’s midterm elections arrive, with nearby WTI posting another fresh six-week high today, currently sitting up 1.2% to trade near $104.15, while nearby Brent is up 2.5% to trade near $113.60, its highest level of the week.

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